Re-running the Greensboro Election

I also decided to analyze what would have happened in the general election had the 2015 maps for the Greensboro City Council been reinstated.

Criteria:
• The nullified map vs the current setup
• The candidates’ raw numbers per precinct are displayed except where indicated
• Curbside, mail, and provisional votes are excluded
• Two precincts--JAM3 (Districts 5 & 6) and JEF (Districts 1 & 2)--that would have contained two districts are included in a candidate’s count 
• For FR5B (Districts 5 & 7), I have assigned all of the numbers to either Wilkins or Thurm
• The setup is based on voters only selecting councilmembers in their own districts as opposed to voting on all eight councilmembers citywide
• The October primary-November general setup is preserved
• * denotes incumbent

District 1
Hightower* 1,587
Hayes 261

Hayes absorbs Ritter-Lipscomb’s votes.

BALANCE OF POWER: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

District 2
Johnson* 1,958
Kee 809

Due to Fox’s resignation, his seat is actually unfilled since he would have been double-bunked with Johnson. The scenario in JEF1 has been changed: Allen only absorbs seven of Brinson’s 12 votes, meaning that Kee advances to the general election by two votes.

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

District 3
Barber* 2,448
Hoffmann* 918

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

District 4
Brinson 1,464
Wils 444

Brinson absorbs Bellamy-Small’s votes.

BOP: DEMOCRACY GREENSBORO GAIN

District 5
Nelson 1,566
Wilkins* 1,215

The only way that the centrist leaning Nelson would win this seat is if the backlash to Wilkins were really strong, and I just don’t see it in this scenario. 

Revised District 5
Wilkins* 1,215
Nelson 764

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD. Factoring in the shift of all FR5B votes to the incumbent, Nelson’s vote total would then be cut in half, turning an upset victory into an anticlimactic contest.

District 6
Kennedy 662
Bellamy-Small 631

This contest would be much closer than I anticipated but if Kennedy were to win in this scenario, then it would be a blown opportunity as a white woman would be representing a majority black district.

BOP: DEMOCRACY GREENSBORO GAIN

District 7
Leone 572
Thurm 549

Leone would have to run a very intense campaign for that result to even be accurate.

Revised District 7
Thurm 549
Leone 262

BOP: DEMOCRACY GREENSBORO GAIN. Factoring in the shift of all FR5B votes to Thurm, Leone’s vote total would then be cut in half, meaning that the well-funded newcomer would cruise to an easy victory. 

District 8
Abuzuaiter* 2,672
Kenton 602

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

THE ULTIMATE BOP:  6 ESTABLISHMENT SEATS, 3 DEMOCRACY GREENSBORO SEATS. The political clans would still hold influence the city council but their supermajority would disappear.

Election '17 Postmortem

Greensboro: Stay the course--mostly

The City Council lost its only two white men--leaving Justin Outling as the only male on the new City Council--but it will still be an elite-flavored stranglehold. The 11th hour endorsements by five former mayors for Mike Barber and Tony Wilkins may have helped to erase the former's razor-thin 12 vote lead over Michelle Kennedy in the primary and put the latter councilman's hold on the District 5 seat out of reach.

Speaking of the person who Wilkins lost to, Tammi Thurm now comes with her own caveat. While she did Greensboro a huge favor by getting rid of the creative community's biggest foe, the only person to get a perfect score from Democracy Greensboro worked for Randall Kaplan in the past and has also curried favor with the other political clans while catering to the leftmost group at the same time.

I previously thought that the worst of all worlds scenario would be either the incumbents (and Goldie Wells) sweeping or the elites deeming Barber (or Marikay Abuzuaiter) expendable and attempting to co-opt Democracy Greensboro's anti-establishment sentiment. Instead, they may have co-opted Thurm in District 5 as a third way. I mean, look at the second link as far as Thurm's funders go: 

• Chip Hagan, husband of the former U.S. senator who likely sealed her fate when she voted against the DREAM ACT
• Andrew Brod, one of the economic development gurus whose theories have done the city far more harm than good
• Ivan Cutler is a very prominent part of the Greater Greensboro Politics Facebook page, which advances the city's establishment agenda 
• Dawn Chaney is a big supporter of the creatives' second biggest foe, Nancy Hoffmann (check out Dang's blog for how much of a hindrance Ms. Chaney truly is)

What the District 5 result means for Democracy Greensboro is that Ms. Kennedy may be the only reliable City Councilwoman who will stand up to the moneyed factions. What it means for Ms. Thurm is that she will have to choose who she wants to serve over the next four years--the citizens of Greensboro or the city's political clans. If Thurm does the right thing, she risks being challenged by someone who's backed by the elites or a stronger conservative who has the full backing of Roy Carroll and/or Marty Kotis in '21. The most apparent thing is that conservatives in West Greensboro turned on Wilkins and did so by staying home in the second round. Meanwhile, the elites were split, so, it may have more to do with the incumbent losing the seat rather than a strong showing by the challenger. And if Thurm sells out, she'll get a challenger to her left.

To no one's surprise, Vaughan swamped her way to a third term. What is more surprising is the blowouts in the district races. Talk about depressing! Despite whispers about Sharon Hightower's stance of small businesses in southeast Greensboro, she got the highest percentage of votes (84%). Goldie Wells made her District 2 appointment official as she becomes the third person to be appointed to City Council and then elected outright in three election cycles. At this point, the political clans may as well buy five of the remaining six seats (once again, Kennedy is the exception here) because the same nonsense would happen anyway.

High Point: Build it now, not later

Jay Wagner narrowly edged Bruce Davis and as a result, the forces who want to build the downtown stadium without the county commissioners' input prevailed over those who wanted the city to mend fences with the county. 

The future of the city is truly on the line over the next two years. A couple off decades ago, I would have been with the build it now crowd but my personal doubts about the Triad's future and evidence that sports stadiums aren't that much of an economic boost placed me in the build it smart camp instead. The Catalyst Project must be handled correctly or it will be a wrap for Downtown High Point. I'll make it a guarantee right now: If there is no stadium in the spring of 2019, there will be a massive backlash in the fall that will be Trump like.

The conservatives' favorite candidate finished 366 votes short of keeping her at-large seat but Cynthia Davis and her allies like Jim Davis could end up with the mayor's seat and the majority in two years if Wagner et al's strategy backfires.

Turnout was 14 percent this year as opposed to the 11 percent in 2005, the last time city elections were held in odd numbered years. Not exactly a vast improvement.

Press censorship: Staggering

Maybe a reason for the serious disconnect is because how compromised the local press is. The televised press does fluff pieces for the Triad's power players but does no investigative journalism to uncover corruption. Meanwhile, the print journalists are all either too scared of the establishment or fully in bed with them. Radio? Really? No, seriously? All of the local AM stations have been converted to sports, music, Spanish or religious formats. The lone FM news/talk station may have a regional show in the morning but it is a feeder for national shows that air later in the day and the host and caller discuss national issues.

Despite numerous candidates filing to run in Greensboro, the local press only focused on a few of the challengers even though there were clear signs that the area is heading in the wrong direction. At the end of August, the Triad Business Journal put out an article that said in no uncertain terms that Greensboro has lost jobs in the private sector since 2007. And yet, not a single seat holder was eliminated in the primaries. As a matter of fact, they were mostly rewarded with new terms. When challengers did bring up that all was not well, they were ignored, ridiculed for bringing up "social issues" or even branded as "extremists."

The News & Record's approach with write-in candidates was sickeningly hypocritical. While it was all too happy to highlight people mounting such campaigns in Rockingham County, it was silent on such candidates in Guilford County.

Also, some friends of friends had a personal run-in with Outling and his wife that could have painted the District 3 councilman in a very different light had the media reported on it (I'm withholding much of the details because a] I don't know all of the story and b] another blogger tried to run with the story and was forced to delete it by the people who are at odds with the Outlings and I don't want to be next). Well, these two found out the hard way that the TV media aren't reliable because they only going to protect the powerful.

Election 2016 One Year Later

In hindsight, it may have been a good thing that Bernie didn't get elected because he probably would have gotten the John Tyler treatment. Whatever was left of the DNC would have delegitimatized Sanders and the People's Party that the Draft Bernie folks are currently pushing for would have been created out of necessity because the Democratic Party would have split in two, resulting in GOP gains in '18 and the Dems conceding the '20 race.

Had Hillary been elected, there would have been nonstop probes on her e-mails and Benghazi--with impeachment likely and conviction possible--leading to President Tim Kaine by the end of next year. Her book tour just further confirmed my suspicions about her: She will never take responsibility for anything she did.

People need to stop treating her as someone who got cheated out of the presidency. She and her crew rigged the primaries and deprived younger voters a voice. Her strategists thought it was a good idea to ignore PA, MI and WI. Chuck Schumer thought that Hillary would get suburban voters after abandoning working class voters.

One year on, the Democratic Party as a whole still refuses to learn anything from being wiped out coast to coast, not including last night's results. The party won governorships in NJ and VA because they were expected to. Meanwhile, the WA State Senate flip ended a fragile right wing majority that was the result of a partnership between conservative business Democrats allying themselves with Republicans.

General Election Endorsements for the Creative Community

Greensboro
Mayor: Write in Billy Jones
At-Large: Michelle Kennedy, Dave Wils  
District 1: Paula Ritter-Lipscomb
District 2: Write in Thessa Pickett
District 3: Craig Martin
District 4: Gary Kenton
District 5: Tammi Thurm

High Point
Mayor: Bruce Davis
At-Large: Mary Lou Andrews Blakeney, write in Megan Longstreet
Ward 1: Jeff Golden
Ward 2: Chris Williams
Ward 3: Monica Peters
Ward 4: Jim Bronnert or Wesley Hudson
Ward 5: Victor Jones

Re-running the Greensboro Primaries

Given the shock of Greensboro voters heavily supporting the status quo amid a wave of numerous candidates filing to run against the incumbents, I decided to take a look at how the 30 (the five candidates who dropped out of their races after the filing deadline closed and the three mayoral candidates are excluded) candidates running for City Council would have fared under the HB 263 districts vs the actual districts.

Criteria:

·         The nullified map vs the current setup

·         The candidates’ raw numbers per precinct are displayed except where indicated

·         Curbside, mail, and provisional votes are excluded

·         Three precincts that would have contained two districts are included in a candidate’s count. The three in question are FR5B (Districts 5 & 7), JAM3 (Districts 5 & 6) and JEF (Districts 1 & 2)

·         The setup is based on voters only selecting councilmembers in their own districts as opposed to voting on all eight councilmembers citywide

·         The October primary-November general setup is preserved

·         * denotes incumbent

District 1

Hightower* 1,344

Hayes 229

Outling* 206

Outling would be at a serious disadvantage without many of his wealthy clients to help him. However, Hayes would not stand much of a chance in the general election thanks to East Greensboro’s power brokers.

BALANCE OF POWER: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

District 2

Johnson* 1,261

Wells 671

Kee 242

Allen 238

Either Johnson or Wells would have stepped down and the remaining candidate would have garnered the other’s votes, making the numbers duplicative. With Brinson’s 12 votes in JEF1 being factored in, Allen would advance to the general election over Kee by an eight-vote margin.

Revised District 2

Johnson or Wells* 1,261

Allen 250

Kee 242

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD. Not even a spirited campaign by Allen would have been able to withstand the big money influence of the city’s political clans and the same thing  goes for the power of old guard black leaders fighting the younger generation.

District 3

Barber* 1,147

Hoffmann* 548

Marsh 100

Hoffmann, like Outling, would have also lost the vast majority of her precincts, putting her at a distinct disadvantage in the general election.

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

District 4

Wils 157

Ritter-Lipscomb 138

Brinson 104

Martin 66

King 47

Since Brinson and Martin both have ties to Black Lives Matter Greensboro and District 4 would have been a minority-majority district, Martin’s votes are added to Brinson’s total, which would allow Brinson to coast in the second round.

Revised District 4

Brinson 170

Wils 157

Ritter-Lipscomb 138

King 47

BOP: DEMOCRACY GREENSBORO GAIN

District 5

Wilkins* 593

Jackson 375

Ingram 217

Nelson 104

Hill 69

It’s unlikely that Jackson or Ingram would run against Wilkins unless there was a real sharp push from the hard right. Jackson entered the at-large race saying that he was “in the mold of Wilkins.” Meanwhile, Ingram had the support of the General Assembly’s Guilford delegation members who backed the HB263 maps, and Wilkins was the only member on City Council who backed the changes, so he would have been rewarded with a safe district.

Revised District 5

Wilkins* 1,185

Nelson 104

Hill 69

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

District 6

Bellamy-Small 277

Kennedy 225

Bakie 76

Perry-Garnette 59

Lucas 23

The most vocal challenger (Kennedy) of the ’17 election would have stood no chance against the former councilwoman (TDBS) in a one on one showdown since District 6 would have also demographically favored electing a black official.

BOP: ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT BLACK COMMUNITY GAIN

District 7

Thurm 255

Bennett-Bradshaw 115

Leone 40

Lacking a second conservative challenger, this race would have been more of a jump straight to the general election since the two ladies are ideologically compatible. Add these two numbers and the margin is even wider in favor of Thurm.

BOP: DEMOCRACY GREENSBORO GAIN

District 8

Abuzuaiter* 1,222

Kenton 288

This is more FYI because the general election numbers would be higher.

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

I thought about which setup would have been better for any group on either the left or the right to break the elites’ stranglehold.

Certainly, the old 0-6-1 setup where everyone was elected at-large served the elites the best. The current 5-3-1 setup is not serving the people well either. Eventually, an 8-0-1 setup would have given the people of Greensboro a chance.

THE ULTIMATE BOP:  6 ESTABLISHMENT SEATS, 3 ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT SEATS. District 1 and 2 are seats that could flip once the older leaders are out of the picture. District 5 could tilt even more to the right if enough people get fed up with Wilkins. Add a change in the mayor’s seat and we are suddenly talking about 7-2 supermajority that could destroy the elites’ will.

High Point Mayor General Election

Bruce Davis vs Jay Wagner vs Damorius Fuller Ali (write-in)

This election really changed on a whim, didn't it? It looked like Jim Davis would be taking on Wagner, but the voters didn't want him after all. Now, it's a showdown of two lines of thinking: Build the stadium now/go it alone without the county commissioners vs build it smart/cooperate with the commissioners so they can get on board.

Bruce Davis is clearly in the latter camp as a former county commissioner, and it's the right call. If the former camp attempt to rush the stadium through, the whole project risks being scuttled amid a  conservative wave in 2019.

Wagner first took a crack at revitalization in late 2009 when he was a part of the Planning Commission's unsuccessful efforts to create a Market District, which would have set aside parts of downtown as places for entertainment, but some showrooms were upset to the point of threatening to pull out of the Furniture Market. Instead, Wagner had to settle for rezoning a two-mile stretch of North Main Street as Uptowne.

The third candidate listed, Fuller Ali, is motivated by the city's rash of homicides and his main focus before the write-in campaign was to incorporate a nonprofit to stem the violence. Had he been persuaded before the filing deadline, Fuller Ali would have likely been in the precarious position of splitting the black vote and/or been the victim of strategic voting pattern by black leaders wanting to avoid a Jim Davis-Wagner second round matchup. Regardless, Fuller Ali has a bright future if he should get his organization up and running.

High Point City Council At-Large General Election

Cynthia Davis vs Mary Lou Andrews Andrews Blakeney vs Britt Moore vs Don Scarborough

The two candidates I voted for finished fifth and last respectively in the primary. As a result, I have a very difficult decision ahead.

Out of the candidates who advanced, only Blakeney is worth the endorsement and the vote.

I have never really been a fan of Cynthia Davis or her ideology. Her clear stance on the stadium has turned her from being the most popular candidate in 2014 to being on the ropes to keep her seat.

As for Moore, his stance on revitalization during his second term was inconsistent to say the least. He is a supporter of a downtown stadium, which landed him the support of a pro-business PAC. Even though he is one of only two registered independents (Monica Peters in Ward 3 is the other), his stances don't impress me much and I have never voted for him and won't this time either.

The fourth person, Scarborough, is all in for the downtown project. However, I can't support him because High Point University (his former employer) carries its own baggage. Alienating residents by cutting off a part of Montlieu Avenue to them because the administration wanted a medical school at all costs but it couldn't successfully persuade Sears and Dillard's to leave Oak Hollow Mall loses points with me. Secondly, the naming of any street after Martin Luther King, Jr. became an incredibly unnecessary controversy in early 2015. Kivett Drive should have been left alone while South College Drive should have been given the MLK Drive designation, and North College should have been named University Parkway. Instead, the school wanted the entire College Drive corridor named University Parkway. Naturally, the City Council did HPU's bidding and wiped off the Kivett Drive designation west of Business 85.

I have also decided that writing in Megan Longstreet as a protest vote would be a better option than supporting any of the previous three candidates.

High Point Ward Elections

NOTE: Jason Ewing is running unopposed in Ward 6

Ward 1

Jeffrey Golden vs Willie Davis

Even though I had issues with Golden during his first term when he consistently sided with the anti-revitalization forces, he has made up for it.

The fact that Willie Davis is running against Golden for the third consecutive cycle means that this should be the least competitive contest. Also, he no-showed the candidate forum earlier this month, depriving some sectors of the population the chance to hear his platform.

Ward 2

Chris Williams vs David Bagley

Williams is running for a second term and was the only candidate who listed crime as his #1 priority during the October 3 forum. In a lot of ways, he's right. The year started off with a rash of homicides, but the issue has been put on the backburner due to the Catalyst Project taking up all of the air. Murders in the city have returned to a rate that was last seen in 1998--horrible. It's time to address the blight in the eastern part of the city that eventually leads to homicides and the heroin epidemic getting out of hand.

I admire Bagley's enthusiasm but he should consider a run for a school board seat instead of a city council seat.

Ward 3

Megan Longstreet vs Monica Peters

Either woman would be an asset to the creative community.

Longstreet's top priority is tackling the blight in the ward, namely opioid abuse and poverty as southwest High Point is one of the poorest in town.

Even though the outgoing seat holder Alyce Hill has endorsed her, Peters first showed her chops working alongside Ryan Saunders in planning Dinner With A Side of Culture event at the Pit in 2014. After the latter left for Greensboro later that year, Mrs. Peters has had to pick up the slack as City Council slowly realized that revitalizing the center city was a necessity. She also organized other events like the EbFest Music Festival and launched We "Heart" High Point. As far as I'm concerned, Monica Peters is the real deal for creatives--and the best out of all the candidates in both cities.

Ward 4

Jim Bronnert vs Wesley Hudson

Just as I thought I had it all figured out, it turned out that Hudson's lead was the result of the Jay Wagner effect. This seemed to be Bronnert's to lose given Hudson was the outsider who as recently moved from Winston-Salem and the seat was open due to Wagner's mayoral run. Given what happened, this is a difficult one for me so I have decided to endorse both candidates.

Ward 5

Victor Jones vs Chris Whitley

Jones bucked the trend: He moved from Raleigh to High Point instead of the other way around. He would be a breath of fresh air over the longtime politician Whitley, who was on and off City Council between 1992 and 2012.

Greensboro Mayor General Election

Nancy Vaughan vs Diane Moffett vs Billy Jones (write-in)

Let's not beat around the bush here, Mrs. Vaughan is going to win a third term as mayor and will do so running away. She's already running away from the Rev. Moffett in the endorsements race. Conservative West Greensboro is not about to help out Black East Greensboro in dethroning the mayor--not especially when its own slate flamed out in the District 1 and at-large contests big time in addition to John Brown's poor showing in the mayoral contest.

That said, it doesn't mean that I'm going to support someone who is partially responsible for Greensboro still being the hungriest city in America. There's still no reason to support Moffett either because of the potential lawsuits headed the pastor's way if she pulls off the upset. If Moffett's victory is invalidated, then Yvonne Johnson (assuming that the chalk holds) will end up serving another term as mayor and yet another seat will have to be filled and it will go to yet another person with establishment connections.

So, I'm recommending that the creative community write in Billy Jones for mayor.

Greensboro City Council At-Large General Election

Yvonne Johnson vs Marikay Abuzuaiter vs Mike Barber vs Michelle Kennedy vs Dave Wils vs T. Dianne Bellamy-Small

The primary results speak for themselves: Only one Tier 1 candidate and one Tier 2 candidate advanced against one Tier 4 candidate and all three Tier 5 candidates.

I'm still wrapping my head around the fact that Bellamy-Small was able to to beat Irving Allen, who would have been a breath of fresh air and an asset to the creative community. Bellamy-Small is practically a District 1 incumbent looking to seek an at-large seat. That is why I ranked her lower than the two conservatives who had backing from or supported local and state candidates who are outright enemies of the creative community.

It's been my contention over the last four years that the Tanger Performing Arts Center will be a detriment to the arts community and I'm standing by that assessment as the number of venues for artists continues to dwindle downtown. Since all three incumbents have contributed to either the PAC saga or to the city's loss of private sector jobs, none of them deserve to be reelected even though the first two seats seem to be safe.

Instead of the contest being a matter of slowing down Nancy Vaughan and the elites, it's now a contest between new ideas and continuing the same old tired ideas that have resulted in a stagnant city. So, as a result, Kennedy and Wils are the only two people I'm recommending.

Greensboro District Elections

District 1

Sharon Hightower vs Paula Ritter-Lipscomb

I'll stick to my original assessment that Ritter-Lipscomb will be a better fit to turn Southeast Greensboro around than the incumbent.

District 2

Goldie Wells vs Jim Kee vs Thessa Pickett (write-in)

Perhaps East Greensboro residents and black leaders across the nation need to look at themselves the next time they wonder why there's such a dearth of young black leaders who are interested in the political process. The older generation clearly does not want to pass the torch. Irving Allen and Syvine Hill were advancing a new line of thinking in the at-large race while C.J. Brinson promised to do the same in District 2. Instead, Allen was sandwiched between the conservatives for an eighth place finish. Hill, who was deemed by a number of people to be the most qualified candidate, finished at the bottom in the 15-person field and will now be deemed to be a perennial candidate (i.e., unelectable) by the experts. As for Brinson, he missed the chance to call a recount by a measly vote, which exceeded the 1 percentage point requirement.

Sensing the potential of a part of the district being "orphaned," Pickett jumped into the race as a write-in candidate. Her previous political experience was running against Jamal Fox in 2015 and being a part of Black Lives Matter's Greensboro chapter.

The reason why the young demographic risks being abandoned is because the two names on the ballot clearly don't appeal to it. Wells reneged on a pledge to not run for the seat after she was appointed to replace Fox. So, yeah, Ms. Wells is part of that problem of older black leaders unwilling to let the younger generation take a crack at leadership.

Meanwhile, Kee is beholden to developer interests who game the system to get taxpayer money for their projects. Also, to make matters worse, Kee decided to become a Republican on the 18th and was flanked by District 5's Tony Wilkins among others. Joining the party that likes to yell "all lives matter" and echoes the Blue Lives Matter platform is going to lose you votes in a predominately black district. It makes me wonder if Mr. Kee has aspirations for higher office next year.

The only sensible thing to do is to write in Thessa Pickett.

District 3

Justin Outling vs Craig Martin

Another short and sweet message: Consider Craig indeed!

District 4

Nancy Hoffmann vs Gary Kenton

The incumbent is the second biggest impediment to the creative community right behind Wilkins. With Wilkins, it's based on his actions. With Hoffmann, it's based largely on her attitude. In general, Hoffmann and her crowd remind me of Southwest Raleigh residents during my time at NC State. Those residents showed their contempt for NCSU students by convincing local lawmakers to pass an ordinance in mid-2000 that effectively curtailed all off campus parties (when most students were away for the summer) and wanted to restrict the number of roommates a person could have (fortunately, the measure was defeated by a unanimous vote by the Raleigh City Council in early 2003 after students and citizens from other parts of the city spoke up). It's also worth noting that Mrs. Hoffmann was also one of the architects of the dreaded noise ordinance in 2012.

Even if his campaign didn't have any substance, Kenton would have been the no-brainer for the creative community. The fact that he does have a detailed idea of what he would do as a councilman makes this endorsement all the better.

District 5

Tony Wilkins vs Tammi Thurm

The biggest shock of the primaries was that Thurm placed ahead of the incumbent. If she repeats the performance, then the creative community will be all the better for it. The big question now is just how the political clans and conservative organizations will react in the waning weeks of the campaign to the candidate who received the highest ranking from Democracy Greensboro.

Analysis and outlook

Greensboro: More of the same

Despite a high number of people running for office, voters in the Gate City decided to stay the course in most of the races (so much for early voting turning into a political earthquake). The exceptions were Tammi Thurm leading Tony Wilkins in District 5 and Mike Barber only leading Michelle Kennedy by 12 votes for the final at-large seat.

Perhaps, the backlash to Democracy Greensboro took on a life of its own after the group held a candidate forum on September 16. Maybe, as another blogger suggested, most of the residents on both sides of the political spectrum have given up hope. If money does make the world go the round, all newcomers but Thurm, Kennedy, and Dave Wils found out the hard way that if you don't have the funds, the media will ignore you--even if you have a clear message or are deemed to be the most qualified.

Eventually, though, the people of Greensboro will have to live with their choices should the elite backed council members continue to make the city unlivable for the have nots.

High Point: Move ahead with the project

The people deemed by the founder of Sunrise Books to be the "High Point Enterprise Naysayers Club" had a very long night on the 10th as their favorite candidate (Cynthia Davis) advanced to the second round in third place after topping the at-large field in 2014 and Catalyst Project skeptic Jim Davis was eliminated from the mayoral race. It's clear that voters weren't in line the conservatives' line of thinking.

That said, it would be very wise that the Catalyst Project is actually handled the right way because if it isn't, I have a sneaking feeling that either Davis or both will lead a hard right backlash in 2019 with a throw the baby out with the bathwater attitude that would ensure that downtown is lost to the furniture industry forever.

Why I'm anti-experience

As you may notice, I steadfastly refuse to support anyone who is currently in office in Greensboro and former seat holders in both cities. The reason is simple. The following people--Nancy Vaughan, Yvonne Johnson, Chris Whitley--have been in and out of office since the '90s and things got worse under the watch of all three as well as various mayors in both cities. For Greensboro, it's been about making downtown more presentable for rich, white elites who show contempt for minorities. Here in High Point, the northern part of the city sprawled throughout the '90s and '00s while downtown became barren outside of the furniture market and the older southern and eastern parts deteriorated. 

I hold Goldie Wells and Dianne Bellamy-Small culpable because they didn't do enough to stop the creeping poverty while they were in office in the second half of the aughts.

The remaining seven members of the Greensboro City Council also bear responsibility for supporting the STPAC white elephant while residents in East Greensboro continue to fall behind.

Clarification regarding Guilford County elections

Apparently, local or state law does not allow for write-ins in the primaries, so several posts have been changed to reflect that situation. The good news as I found out in 2003 when the district representing NC State had a runoff between two candidates who were hostile to the university's interests, I was able to write in "none of the above" to express my disgust, and Greensboro and High Point voters will be able to write in other people for mayor. So, Billy Jones in the former city and Damorius Fuller Ali in the latter city will be available selections next month.

Primary Endorsements for the Creative Community

Greensboro
Mayor: No endorsement 
At-Large: Irving David Allen (Mayor Pro Tem), Syvine Hill, Michelle Kennedy, Dave Wils (to advance), Lindy Perry-Garnette (to advance), Tijuana Hayes (to advance)
District 1: Paula Ritter-Lipscomb
District 2: C.J. Brinson
District 3: Craig Martin
District 4: Gary Kenton
District 5: Tammi Thurm

High Point
Mayor: Bruce Davis
At-Large: Michael Holmes, Sarah Jane Otte, or Mary Lou Andrews Blakeney 
Ward 4: Jim Bronnert
Ward 5: Victor Jones

High Point Municipal Primaries

Mayor

Challengers: Bruce Davis, Jim Davis, Jay Wagner

The city will elect its third new mayor after Becky Smothers was in office for 16 of 20 years on and off from 1992 to 2012.

The contest seems to be between the last two candidates as Jim Davis and Wagner have traded barbs against each other over a range of issues, and the mudslinging did not end at last night's forum either.

At first, I was going to go with Bruce Davis but then, I had reservations as to whether the county commissioner turned CVB head would once again have his eyes set on higher office--after all, he ran unsuccessfully for State Senate twice this decade and for Congress the last two national cycles--once the mess with the General Assembly's drawing of state and congressional lines is finally settled. However, I listened to what he said at the forum and how he laid out everything related to the proposed stadium, and it made more sense than the way the current mayor and various High Point leaders conducted themselves with the county commissioners. As a result, I have switched back from Wagner to Bruce Davis for mayor since Wagner sided with Bill Bencini and Company's rapid fire push to get the stadium built by 2019 which led to the pushback from the county commissioners.

Ward 4

Challengers: Jim Bronnert, Wesley Hudson, Jody Kearns

The three men are running to succeed Wagner. Bronnert lost to Wagner three years ago. Hudson recently ran for office in Winston-Salem before moving to High Point. Kearns's main motivation for running seems to be the fact that he has a grudge against Wagner.

Ward 5

Challengers: Victor Jones, Deric Stubbs, Sr., Chris Whitley

These three are running to replace Jim Davis. Jones was the only one to appear at last evening's forum. I was willing to give Stubbs a chance and still might if he advances but the no-show was not a good look. As for Whitley, I hold him just as accountable for High Point's status as the hungriest city in America as I do former mayor Smothers since both were in and out of City Council throughout the '90s and '00s as the older parts of the city broke down.

At-Large

Incumbent: Cynthia Davis
Challengers: Mary Lou Andrews Blakeney, Daniel Gardner, Michael Holmes, Britt Moore, Sarah Jane Otte, Don Scarbrough

Cynthia Davis is the most conservative of the current council and the only one who voted against the stadium.

Moore wants his seat back after narrowly losing it to Latimer Alexander IV. He joined Wagner in wanting to keep the City Project back in the spring of 2014 but joined what was left of City Council to kill the plan to reduce part of North Main Street from five lanes to two as a part of a street diet right before the election.

Blakeney also wants to return to the council. She won the second seat in a wave election in 2008 only to lose it to Moore in another wave election two years later.

Scarborough was a part of High Point University's rapid growth, which is part gift and part curse. On one hand, the university's growth has acted as a buffer in keeping the older east central part of the city from decaying. On the other hand, the university has helped to perpetuate the balkanization of the city into three distinct fiefdoms--the university area, the newer parts in the extreme northern part of the city and the older parts in the rest of the city. Also, I still bear a grudge over how the school handled the MLK street renaming controversy in early 2015.

While I do agree with Gardner (among others) that the stadium project should have been placed on the ballot as a referendum, most of his ideology doesn't line up with mine.

In the end, I'll go with Holmes and Otte in addition to Blakeney.

Greensboro Mayor

Incumbent: Nancy Vaughan

Challengers: John Brown, Dianne Moffett

Vaughan is the first person since Keith Holliday to be reelected. She campaigned to be more transparent four years ago than her predecessor but has been less so. Like most mayors, she has ignored the city's east side. While there are members of the creative community who have developed a rapport with her, Vaughan's commitment to the Tanger PAC and the city's old guard seriously compromises her position as a friend of the arts.

Her first opponent, Brown, says that he's a supporter of the arts but unlike ex-mayor Bill Knight, I've never seen him at any of the local arts events. He might frequent the same art events as the city's 1% but none of the really groundbreaking or iconoclastic stuff. Then, there's this (and four more like it).

The other challenger, Moffett, is a popular pastor in East Greensboro. The catch is that her downtown apartment isn't her primary residence.

The underlying premise is that Vaughan is unpopular but not unpopular enough for a unifying opponent to dethrone her. Absent a major political earthquake, one of the challengers will be eliminated on October 10. Conservatives in West Greensboro are unlikely to support Moffett if Brown is eliminated and could sit out the mayor's race like they did in '13 and '15. Meanwhile, blacks in East Greensboro are just as unlikely to support Brown if Moffett is eliminated and could either skip the mayoral selection or very reluctantly support Vaughan.

As a result, I am encouraging the creative community to skip this race in the primary and the primary only.

Greensboro City Council At-Large

Incumbents: Marikay Abuzuaiter, Mike Barber, Yvonne Johnson

Challengers: Irving David Allen, M.A. Bakie, T. Dianne Bellamy-Small, Jodi Bennett-Bradshaw, Tijuana Hayes, Sylvine Hill, James Ingram, Dan Jackson, Michelle Kennedy, Andy Nelson, Lindy Perry-Garnette, Dave Wils

There are four challengers for every incumbent--that alone should say something about how fed up people really are with Greensboro's business as usual government. 2015 was the first time since the current 5-3-1 system was implemented in 1983 that there were no primaries for the at-large seats as there were only three challengers

Obviously, it would be a horrible outcome if all three incumbents prevail in November. However, there's another outcome that would be arguably worse: the city's political clans co-opting the anti-incumbent sentiment by deeming one of the incumbents expendable (likely Abuzuaiter or Barber) and using an outsider to further their corporatist ends.

Rather than break down every single candidate running in this race, I have decided to place the 15 candidates into five tiers and provide explanations for some candidates. The first tier will be my official endorsements, the second tier represents candidates I would like to see advance to the general election, and the last one automatically includes the three incumbents.

Tier 1: Allen, Hill, Kennedy
Tier 2: Wils, Perry-Garnette, Hayes
Tier 3: Bennett-Bradshaw, Bakie, Nelson
Tier 4: Ingram, Jackson, Bellamy-Small
Tier 5: Johnson, Abuzuaiter, Barber

Allen: He was a panelist at Elsewhere's election night party last year and is a cool guy.

Bellamy-Small: She needs to figure out whether she wants to represent the county's schoolchildren or return to the Melvin Municipal Building.

Bennett-Bradshaw: I wanted to support her but her platform is very vague despite her saying all of the right things.

Ingram: He's backed by the some of the very state legislators responsible for dragging the state's reputation through the mud.

Jackson: In the mold of Wilkins? No thanks!

Greensboro District 5

Incumbent: Tony Wilkins

Challengers: Sal Leone, Tanner Lucas, Tammi Thurm

Wilkins was the first one of the three City Councilmen to be appointed--except in his case he had to overcome a hostile effort by then-Mayor Robbie Perkins to prevent him from being appointed after Trudy Wade got elected to the State Senate in 2012.

The incumbent is the biggest obstacle to the arts community hands down. First, he wrote a Facebook post in 2013 that inaccurately described a routine done by Foxy Moxy at the inaugural East-West BBQ Fest. The truth was that the performance was at a tent that was clearly marked as "adults only."

The second incident happened at the beginning of this year when he called the Fire Department on Geeksboro before the Idiot Box held "A Trump Roast." It's clear to me that the county's GOP bigwigs didn't appreciate the comedy club poking fun at the most humorless president in decades and needed to slow the momentum of the Idiot Box and Geeksboro.

Leone advanced to the primary election four years ago. His anti-East Greensboro slam won't win him any friends on that side of town given that this is his fourth run for Greensboro office (his last one was the anticlimactic '15 mayoral race).

Lucas has some good ideas but the district skews older demographically, so I'm giving the edge to Thurm.

Greensboro District 4

Incumbent: Nancy Hoffmann
Challenger: Gary Kenton
Withdrawn: Andrew Belford

Because candidates had to withdraw their names from the ballot before the filing window closed on July 21, the five candidates who are out of their respective races will still be listed on the primary ballot.

Belford kept a low profile and said he entered the race so Hoffmann wouldn't run unopposed like she did two years ago. Under normal circumstances, it would be enough for me to endorse him but since Kenton is the more formidable candidate, I'll go with the latter.

Greensboro District 3

Incumbent: Justin Outling

Challengers: Antuan Marsh, Craig Martin

Withdrawn: Payton McGarry

Outling is a walking conflict of interest. His law firm does business with the city and the whole United Healthcare debacle stinks to high heaven. He might be the first black person to serve a majority white district in Greensboro but he can speak the language of the elites with the rest of them (after all, Irving Park does lie in this district).

While either one of the incumbent's remaining challengers would be a marked improvement, I have to give Martin the slight edge over Marsh. Martin seems to be the favorite from members of the creative community and Black Lives Matter activists.

Greensboro District 2

Seat holder: Goldie Wells

Challengers: C.J. Brinson, Jim Kee

Withdrawn: Felicia Angus, Tim Vincent

Jamal Fox resigned from his seat to move to Portland, OR with his girlfriend. He handpicked Vincent to replace him but the City Council opted to pick Wells (just like how City Council opted to appoint Justin Outling after Zack Matheny wanted former councilman Tom Phillips to replace him two years ago).

Wells is the third person in three election cycles to be appointed to her seat and then run for a full term. She represented District 2 from 2005 to 2009.

Wells's successor, Jim Kee, served two terms of his own before losing to Fox in 2013. The main reason to not support Kee's return other than the fact that he's been in office before is the fact that he's backed by developer interests like ex-mayor Robbie Perkins--hence, Kee's beholden to at least one of the city's political clans.

Both Wells and Kee had their chances and it's clearly time for a new generation to represent East Greensboro--Northeast Greensboro in particular. Fox should have been that person but he eventually got pulled in by the Marty Kotis and Roy Carroll factions.

Brinson is that person to represent East Greensboro because he gets it. He gets who Revolution Mill really caters to. I have seen some of my creative friends hold events there but most of them and the people who attended such events in the past aren't of the same skin color as me. As much as I enjoyed said events, East Greensboro residents are not the ones who are benefiting from the mill, it's the old money Irving Park crowd who once upon a time let Downtown Greensboro rot until the creative class helped revive it.

Greensboro District 1

Incumbent: Sharon Hightower
Challengers: Devin King, Paula Ritter-Lipscomb
Withdrawn: Charles Patton, Jr.

There's a sense from this post that Hightower has let her Southeast Greensboro community down even though she's only been in office for four years after a 10 year run by Dianne Bellamy-Small.

Her first opponent, Devin King, advanced to the second round of the 2015 mayoral race--only to garner a minuscule 12 percent. How he thinks his conservative philosophy lines up with the concerns of the district is beyond me.

Hightower's second opponent, Ritter-Lipscomb is the best bet to turn Southeast Greensboro around.

It makes me wonder why I'm still even here. The Triad is DONE

Greensboro ranks among worst metros for private-sector jobs growth

Hat tip EZ Greensboro

The Greensboro metro has lost 5,700 private-sector jobs during the past 10 years, lagging behind the growth rates of many of the nation’s major markets, according to a federal report issued Wednesday."
Greensboro is 65th in the national rankings. The local metro declined 1.8 percent from 325,000 private-sector jobs in July 2007 to 319,300 last month.
This 10-year comparison is an effective indicator of the extent to which any given market has bounced back from the Great Recession, which officially extended from December 2007 to June 2009.
Each of the top five metros, including Raleigh (ranked fourth, 24.1 percent growth, edit done by me), logged 10-year growth rates that exceed 21 percent. The five major markets at the bottom of the list — including Greensboro — are the only areas that now have fewer private-sector jobs now than a decade ago.
Charlotte ranked 16th with 14.8 percent growth.

Quite frankly, I would take a broom and sweep all 18 seatholders out of office in Greensboro and High Point but my options are limited.

Local Elections and the Creatives

I have decided to take a look at the local elections from the viewpoint of how the issues affect the creative community.

Greensboro

The effort by state senator Trudy Wade to redraw the city's district lines has been permanently shelved by the courts and the end result is a very high number of people filing to take out all nine seat holders. Since I hang out here, I know a lot of members of the artist community. Ultimately, my picks and opinions will stray away from conventional belief because I have seen and heard things that would make most people's heads spin.

Following the results of a 2015 referendum, this year's elections will be the last ones until 2021 since four year terms were approved by the voters. Choose very wisely, Greensboro.

There are a lot of issues that need to be tackled: 

• a salary raise the City Council gave itself in mid 2016
• the Tanger Performing Arts Center and its potential to destroy the city's arts scene
• this area has ranked #1 in food hardship since 2015
• the ability to stand up to the Gate City's various political clans
• this is the third straight election cycle where a seat holder appointed to finish an unexpired term has decided to run for a full term, which plays into the hands of said clans
• the continued neglect of East Greensboro

High Point

This is the first time since 2005 that elections are being held in odd numbered years and with primaries. Only 11 percent bothered to turn out for that year's election. The hope in moving elections to even numbered years was to boost turnout. Instead, voters often skipped city elections after voting in higher profile state and national elections and on top of that, every race was winner take all, which led to some candidates being elected with less than 50 percent.

Here in the Furniture City, it's been about the Three H's (which is a sadder riff of what my high school classmate once said about the city being famous for furniture and Fantasia, hence the Two F's): hunger, heroin, and homicides.

At the same time, baseball and revitalization have also become big topics. North Main Street may not be street dieted but other parts of town have seen their streets have reduced lanes in order to make neighborhoods more pedestrian friendly. Andres Duany was brought here in 2013, which was also the same time tactical urbanism was being bandied about. The end result was that some of ideas have been adopted while others have been ignored. North Main through parts of Uptowne was closed between the fall and spring furniture markets. The construction project led to rerouted traffic and one business closing but that has not made much of an impact to this point.

When it wasn't busy chasing young creatives out of the Pit, past City Councils were doing something stupid as getting a Chinese entity to do a sculpture and passing it off as "local" simply because the prototype was done by a resident of the High Point area. The good news is that the current city government eventually allowed murals to be done in the Pit again--the result was a project that was conducted in conjunction with a nearby beer festival back in May.

Exit National Folk Festival, Enter NC Folk Festival

The three year run of the National Folk Festival in Greensboro has come to an end and as it turns out, contrary to what I said last year, the big players in Greensboro do have a plan for next year and beyond, and it's called the North Carolina Folk Festival.

That was a big surprise to me given that I thought for sure that the city's leaders were going all in with the still unbuilt and structureless performing arts center and also I thought that Guilford County's long reputation of naysaying out of the ordinary stuff would have precluded such an event.

While I don't have any issues with the pending spinoff, I do have to question the logistics and public support. First, the bus issues have to be fixed because they were terrible this year. Instead of continuing the increased frequencies (they were every 30 minutes during the festival in '15 and three routes ran every 7-8 minutes while the other routes ran every 30 minutes last year), the regular hourly schedule was used. 

Second, a friend of mine pointed out last year some of the inner workings of the Greensboro arts scene and said that the midsized organizations had been getting less funding due to ArtsGreensboro giving all of its money to the National Folk Festival. I don't believe that 100 percent of ArtsGreensboro funding will go the NCFF, but if it does, then there could be trouble with other arts organizations in town--a prime example is that the Greensboro Fringe Festival almost went out of business due to it falling short of fundraising goals earlier this year.

The elephants aren't going anywhere

The Jim Hunt wing of the Democratic Party has made its choice and it’s to change parties. Politically speaking, North Carolina is the most backward state because of how long its political realignment played out. Moderate and conservative Democrats ran the state for much of the second half of the last century. As a result, immense GOP gains were difficult to impossible. What has happened since 2010 only means that NC is not a leader at all--it really means that it has finally caught up to the other southern states as the Nixon-Reagan realignment has made the state's GOP more in line with the national party.

Anti-urbanism’s power has shifted west. For decades, it was eastern Democrats. Now, it’s suburban Republicans joining forces with their rural counterparts to put the screws to the urban areas. Trudy Wade’s failed attempt to overhaul the Greensboro City Council was just a local example of this.

The right wing takeover could have been avoided (or at least dented) if only Dems had agreed to an independent redistricting plan in 2002!

Democratic corruption has given way to Republican stupidity and embarrassment

• Exhibit A: The lawmakers who said that the First Amendment didn't apply to NC.
• Exhibit B: The nipple ban bill that went nowhere
• Exhibit C: Making various elections partisan when nobody wanted it and attempting likewise with all municipal elections
• Exhibit D: Mike Stone of Lee County going out of his way to force a radio show off a college station after the hosts criticized him for interfering in local affairs
• Exhibit E: Attempting to reinstate a ban on same sex marriage, ignoring the high court
• Exhibit F: Drafting a laughable bill that would force NC State and UNC to leave the ACC if the conference calls the state on its bluff in the future
• Exhibit G: The law that allows people to run over protesters with impunity

Since the GOP will be in power until 2023 at the earliest, get used to this state being in the news for all the wrong reasons like the 2014 Jefferson Muzzles and all of the blowback over HB2.

Greensboro: The Stunted City

It started with the location of the North Carolina Railroad. It was only Governor John Motley Morehead’s political pull that landed the railroad in Greensboro rather than Asheboro. Had the railroad gone through the centrally located city, it’s very likely that this state would have many more people because Asheboro would've been better suited to compete with the Triangle and Charlotte. 

Instead, as these pictures indicate, various cities played hot potato with the top four spots after the Wilmington coup of 1898. 

(Note: The population figures are from the October 15, 2006 edition of the News & Record)

Then, there's this tidbit:

Then, in 1923, High Point surprised Greensboro by an annexation that expanded its population to 21,000 and made it the state's sixth largest city. Greensboro was number eight, and its backers immediately submitted a new charter to the General Assembly, increasing its limits from four to nearly 18 square miles. Its population more than doubled to more than 45,000. "Greater Greensboro," as it was known, became NC’s third largest city overnight, a rank it holds today.

The annexation tit for tat within Guilford Country alone is partly why the Triad has never been a viable threat to its neighbors down I-40 & I-85.

Another thing that surprised me was that it wasn't until the last decade that the Triangle surpassed the Triad in population. One only has to wonder how the region to the east was able to stick to its vision like Research Triangle Park while the much less spread out Piedmont Triad struggled to even recognize itself as a region.

Durham and Winston-Salem traded the #4 and #5 positions between 2007 and 2012 before the Bull City pulled away from the Twin City. Given the stagnant growth around the Gate City, it's plausible that Winston could leapfrog it for #3 or rather Greensboro falls to #5 some time around the 2020 Census or afterwards. Now, if Forsyth County ends up with more people than Guilford County, look out because somebody may want to pull the plug on the whole Triad concept then.

The various regional partnerships have done nothing for this area. While Winston has rebranded itself as the City of Arts and Innovation, Greensboro has developed a tremendous inferiority complex (High Point has become a glorified university town, which is a different set of circumstances altogether). Said complex has also spread over to the arts/entertainment/nightlife scene. The reason why the Tanger Performing Arts Center is even being built is due to Greensboro leaders being so envious of a similar venue in Durham. The city's "leaders"never bothered to evaluate the possible negatives, only the need to keep up with the Joneses. The truth is that the TPAC will actually have a negative impact on the arts as the big money donors will show up to the venue while shunning more organic projects that actually touch more people's lives.