Given the shock of Greensboro voters heavily supporting
the status quo amid a wave of numerous candidates filing to run against the
incumbents, I decided to take a look at how the 30 (the five candidates who
dropped out of their races after the filing deadline closed and the three
mayoral candidates are excluded) candidates running for City Council would have
fared under the HB 263 districts vs the actual districts.
Criteria:
·
The candidates’ raw numbers per precinct are
displayed except where indicated
·
Curbside, mail, and provisional votes are
excluded
·
Three precincts that would have contained two
districts are included in a candidate’s count. The three in question are FR5B
(Districts 5 & 7), JAM3 (Districts 5 & 6) and JEF (Districts 1 & 2)
·
The setup is based on voters only selecting
councilmembers in their own districts as opposed to voting on all eight
councilmembers citywide
·
The October primary-November general setup is
preserved
·
* denotes incumbent
District 1
Hightower* 1,344
Hayes 229
Outling* 206
Outling would be at a serious disadvantage without many
of his wealthy clients to help him. However, Hayes would not stand much of a
chance in the general election thanks to East Greensboro’s power brokers.
BALANCE OF POWER: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD
District 2
Johnson* 1,261
Wells 671
Kee 242
Allen 238
Either Johnson or Wells would have stepped down and the
remaining candidate would have garnered the other’s votes, making
the numbers duplicative. With Brinson’s 12 votes in JEF1 being factored in,
Allen would advance to the general election over Kee by an eight-vote margin.
Revised District 2
Johnson or Wells* 1,261
Allen 250
Kee 242
BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD. Not even a spirited campaign by
Allen would have been able to withstand the big money influence of the city’s
political clans and the same thing goes
for the power of old guard black leaders fighting the younger generation.
District 3
Barber* 1,147
Hoffmann* 548
Marsh 100
Hoffmann, like Outling, would have also lost the vast
majority of her precincts, putting her at a distinct disadvantage in the
general election.
BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD
District 4
Wils 157
Ritter-Lipscomb 138
Brinson 104
Martin 66
King 47
Since Brinson and Martin both have ties to Black Lives
Matter Greensboro and District 4 would have been a minority-majority district,
Martin’s votes are added to Brinson’s total, which would allow Brinson to coast
in the second round.
Revised District 4
Brinson 170
Wils 157
Ritter-Lipscomb 138
King 47
BOP: DEMOCRACY GREENSBORO GAIN
District 5
Wilkins* 593
Jackson 375
Ingram 217
Nelson 104
Hill 69
It’s unlikely that Jackson or Ingram would run against
Wilkins unless there was a real sharp push from the hard right. Jackson entered
the at-large race saying that he was “in the mold of Wilkins.” Meanwhile,
Ingram had the support of the General Assembly’s Guilford delegation members
who backed the HB263 maps, and Wilkins was the only member on City Council who
backed the changes, so he would have been rewarded with a safe district.
Revised District 5
Wilkins* 1,185
Nelson 104
Hill 69
BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD
District 6
Bellamy-Small 277
Kennedy 225
Bakie 76
Perry-Garnette 59
Lucas 23
The most vocal challenger (Kennedy) of the ’17 election
would have stood no chance against the former councilwoman (TDBS) in a one on
one showdown since District 6 would have also demographically favored electing
a black official.
BOP: ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT BLACK COMMUNITY GAIN
District 7
Thurm 255
Bennett-Bradshaw 115
Leone 40
Lacking a second conservative challenger, this race would
have been more of a jump straight to the general election since the two ladies
are ideologically compatible. Add these two numbers and the margin is even
wider in favor of Thurm.
BOP: DEMOCRACY GREENSBORO GAIN
District 8
Abuzuaiter* 1,222
Kenton 288
This is more FYI because the general election numbers
would be higher.
BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD
I thought about which setup would have been better for
any group on either the left or the right to break the elites’ stranglehold.
Certainly, the old 0-6-1 setup where everyone was elected
at-large served the elites the best. The current 5-3-1 setup is not serving the
people well either. Eventually, an 8-0-1 setup would have given the people of
Greensboro a chance.
THE ULTIMATE BOP: 6
ESTABLISHMENT SEATS, 3 ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT SEATS. District 1 and 2 are seats
that could flip once the older leaders are out of the picture. District 5 could
tilt even more to the right if enough people get fed up with Wilkins. Add a
change in the mayor’s seat and we are suddenly talking about 7-2 supermajority
that could destroy the elites’ will.
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