Re-running the Greensboro Primaries

Given the shock of Greensboro voters heavily supporting the status quo amid a wave of numerous candidates filing to run against the incumbents, I decided to take a look at how the 30 (the five candidates who dropped out of their races after the filing deadline closed and the three mayoral candidates are excluded) candidates running for City Council would have fared under the HB 263 districts vs the actual districts.

Criteria:

·         The nullified map vs the current setup

·         The candidates’ raw numbers per precinct are displayed except where indicated

·         Curbside, mail, and provisional votes are excluded

·         Three precincts that would have contained two districts are included in a candidate’s count. The three in question are FR5B (Districts 5 & 7), JAM3 (Districts 5 & 6) and JEF (Districts 1 & 2)

·         The setup is based on voters only selecting councilmembers in their own districts as opposed to voting on all eight councilmembers citywide

·         The October primary-November general setup is preserved

·         * denotes incumbent

District 1

Hightower* 1,344

Hayes 229

Outling* 206

Outling would be at a serious disadvantage without many of his wealthy clients to help him. However, Hayes would not stand much of a chance in the general election thanks to East Greensboro’s power brokers.

BALANCE OF POWER: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

District 2

Johnson* 1,261

Wells 671

Kee 242

Allen 238

Either Johnson or Wells would have stepped down and the remaining candidate would have garnered the other’s votes, making the numbers duplicative. With Brinson’s 12 votes in JEF1 being factored in, Allen would advance to the general election over Kee by an eight-vote margin.

Revised District 2

Johnson or Wells* 1,261

Allen 250

Kee 242

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD. Not even a spirited campaign by Allen would have been able to withstand the big money influence of the city’s political clans and the same thing  goes for the power of old guard black leaders fighting the younger generation.

District 3

Barber* 1,147

Hoffmann* 548

Marsh 100

Hoffmann, like Outling, would have also lost the vast majority of her precincts, putting her at a distinct disadvantage in the general election.

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

District 4

Wils 157

Ritter-Lipscomb 138

Brinson 104

Martin 66

King 47

Since Brinson and Martin both have ties to Black Lives Matter Greensboro and District 4 would have been a minority-majority district, Martin’s votes are added to Brinson’s total, which would allow Brinson to coast in the second round.

Revised District 4

Brinson 170

Wils 157

Ritter-Lipscomb 138

King 47

BOP: DEMOCRACY GREENSBORO GAIN

District 5

Wilkins* 593

Jackson 375

Ingram 217

Nelson 104

Hill 69

It’s unlikely that Jackson or Ingram would run against Wilkins unless there was a real sharp push from the hard right. Jackson entered the at-large race saying that he was “in the mold of Wilkins.” Meanwhile, Ingram had the support of the General Assembly’s Guilford delegation members who backed the HB263 maps, and Wilkins was the only member on City Council who backed the changes, so he would have been rewarded with a safe district.

Revised District 5

Wilkins* 1,185

Nelson 104

Hill 69

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

District 6

Bellamy-Small 277

Kennedy 225

Bakie 76

Perry-Garnette 59

Lucas 23

The most vocal challenger (Kennedy) of the ’17 election would have stood no chance against the former councilwoman (TDBS) in a one on one showdown since District 6 would have also demographically favored electing a black official.

BOP: ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT BLACK COMMUNITY GAIN

District 7

Thurm 255

Bennett-Bradshaw 115

Leone 40

Lacking a second conservative challenger, this race would have been more of a jump straight to the general election since the two ladies are ideologically compatible. Add these two numbers and the margin is even wider in favor of Thurm.

BOP: DEMOCRACY GREENSBORO GAIN

District 8

Abuzuaiter* 1,222

Kenton 288

This is more FYI because the general election numbers would be higher.

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

I thought about which setup would have been better for any group on either the left or the right to break the elites’ stranglehold.

Certainly, the old 0-6-1 setup where everyone was elected at-large served the elites the best. The current 5-3-1 setup is not serving the people well either. Eventually, an 8-0-1 setup would have given the people of Greensboro a chance.

THE ULTIMATE BOP:  6 ESTABLISHMENT SEATS, 3 ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT SEATS. District 1 and 2 are seats that could flip once the older leaders are out of the picture. District 5 could tilt even more to the right if enough people get fed up with Wilkins. Add a change in the mayor’s seat and we are suddenly talking about 7-2 supermajority that could destroy the elites’ will.