Criteria:
• The nullified map vs the current setup
• The candidates’ raw numbers per precinct are displayed except where indicated
• Curbside, mail, and provisional votes are excluded
• Two precincts--JAM3 (Districts 5 & 6) and JEF (Districts 1 & 2)--that would have contained two districts are included in a candidate’s count
• For FR5B (Districts 5 & 7), I have assigned all of the numbers to either Wilkins or Thurm
• The setup is based on voters only selecting councilmembers in their own districts as opposed to voting on all eight councilmembers citywide
• The October primary-November general setup is preserved
• * denotes incumbent
District 1
Hightower* 1,587
Hayes 261
Hayes absorbs Ritter-Lipscomb’s votes.
BALANCE OF POWER: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD
District 2
Johnson* 1,958
Kee 809
Due to Fox’s resignation, his seat is actually unfilled since he would have been double-bunked with Johnson. The scenario in JEF1 has been changed: Allen only absorbs seven of Brinson’s 12 votes, meaning that Kee advances to the general election by two votes.
BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD
District 3
Barber* 2,448
Hoffmann* 918
BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD
District 4
Brinson 1,464
Wils 444
Brinson absorbs Bellamy-Small’s votes.
BOP: DEMOCRACY GREENSBORO GAIN
District 5
Nelson 1,566
Wilkins* 1,215
The only way that the centrist leaning Nelson would win this seat is if the backlash to Wilkins were really strong, and I just don’t see it in this scenario.
Revised District 5
Wilkins* 1,215
Nelson 764
BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD. Factoring in the shift of all FR5B votes to the incumbent, Nelson’s vote total would then be cut in half, turning an upset victory into an anticlimactic contest.
District 6
Kennedy 662
Bellamy-Small 631
This contest would be much closer than I anticipated but if Kennedy were to win in this scenario, then it would be a blown opportunity as a white woman would be representing a majority black district.
BOP: DEMOCRACY GREENSBORO GAIN
District 7
Leone 572
Thurm 549
Leone would have to run a very intense campaign for that result to even be accurate.
Revised District 7
Thurm 549
Leone 262
BOP: DEMOCRACY GREENSBORO GAIN. Factoring in the shift of all FR5B votes to Thurm, Leone’s vote total would then be cut in half, meaning that the well-funded newcomer would cruise to an easy victory.
District 8
Abuzuaiter* 2,672
Kenton 602
BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD
THE ULTIMATE BOP: 6 ESTABLISHMENT SEATS, 3 DEMOCRACY GREENSBORO SEATS. The political clans would still hold influence the city council but their supermajority would disappear.
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