Election '17 Postmortem

Greensboro: Stay the course--mostly

The City Council lost its only two white men--leaving Justin Outling as the only male on the new City Council--but it will still be an elite-flavored stranglehold. The 11th hour endorsements by five former mayors for Mike Barber and Tony Wilkins may have helped to erase the former's razor-thin 12 vote lead over Michelle Kennedy in the primary and put the latter councilman's hold on the District 5 seat out of reach.

Speaking of the person who Wilkins lost to, Tammi Thurm now comes with her own caveat. While she did Greensboro a huge favor by getting rid of the creative community's biggest foe, the only person to get a perfect score from Democracy Greensboro worked for Randall Kaplan in the past and has also curried favor with the other political clans while catering to the leftmost group at the same time.

I previously thought that the worst of all worlds scenario would be either the incumbents (and Goldie Wells) sweeping or the elites deeming Barber (or Marikay Abuzuaiter) expendable and attempting to co-opt Democracy Greensboro's anti-establishment sentiment. Instead, they may have co-opted Thurm in District 5 as a third way. I mean, look at the second link as far as Thurm's funders go: 

• Chip Hagan, husband of the former U.S. senator who likely sealed her fate when she voted against the DREAM ACT
• Andrew Brod, one of the economic development gurus whose theories have done the city far more harm than good
• Ivan Cutler is a very prominent part of the Greater Greensboro Politics Facebook page, which advances the city's establishment agenda 
• Dawn Chaney is a big supporter of the creatives' second biggest foe, Nancy Hoffmann (check out Dang's blog for how much of a hindrance Ms. Chaney truly is)

What the District 5 result means for Democracy Greensboro is that Ms. Kennedy may be the only reliable City Councilwoman who will stand up to the moneyed factions. What it means for Ms. Thurm is that she will have to choose who she wants to serve over the next four years--the citizens of Greensboro or the city's political clans. If Thurm does the right thing, she risks being challenged by someone who's backed by the elites or a stronger conservative who has the full backing of Roy Carroll and/or Marty Kotis in '21. The most apparent thing is that conservatives in West Greensboro turned on Wilkins and did so by staying home in the second round. Meanwhile, the elites were split, so, it may have more to do with the incumbent losing the seat rather than a strong showing by the challenger. And if Thurm sells out, she'll get a challenger to her left.

To no one's surprise, Vaughan swamped her way to a third term. What is more surprising is the blowouts in the district races. Talk about depressing! Despite whispers about Sharon Hightower's stance of small businesses in southeast Greensboro, she got the highest percentage of votes (84%). Goldie Wells made her District 2 appointment official as she becomes the third person to be appointed to City Council and then elected outright in three election cycles. At this point, the political clans may as well buy five of the remaining six seats (once again, Kennedy is the exception here) because the same nonsense would happen anyway.

High Point: Build it now, not later

Jay Wagner narrowly edged Bruce Davis and as a result, the forces who want to build the downtown stadium without the county commissioners' input prevailed over those who wanted the city to mend fences with the county. 

The future of the city is truly on the line over the next two years. A couple off decades ago, I would have been with the build it now crowd but my personal doubts about the Triad's future and evidence that sports stadiums aren't that much of an economic boost placed me in the build it smart camp instead. The Catalyst Project must be handled correctly or it will be a wrap for Downtown High Point. I'll make it a guarantee right now: If there is no stadium in the spring of 2019, there will be a massive backlash in the fall that will be Trump like.

The conservatives' favorite candidate finished 366 votes short of keeping her at-large seat but Cynthia Davis and her allies like Jim Davis could end up with the mayor's seat and the majority in two years if Wagner et al's strategy backfires.

Turnout was 14 percent this year as opposed to the 11 percent in 2005, the last time city elections were held in odd numbered years. Not exactly a vast improvement.

Press censorship: Staggering

Maybe a reason for the serious disconnect is because how compromised the local press is. The televised press does fluff pieces for the Triad's power players but does no investigative journalism to uncover corruption. Meanwhile, the print journalists are all either too scared of the establishment or fully in bed with them. Radio? Really? No, seriously? All of the local AM stations have been converted to sports, music, Spanish or religious formats. The lone FM news/talk station may have a regional show in the morning but it is a feeder for national shows that air later in the day and the host and caller discuss national issues.

Despite numerous candidates filing to run in Greensboro, the local press only focused on a few of the challengers even though there were clear signs that the area is heading in the wrong direction. At the end of August, the Triad Business Journal put out an article that said in no uncertain terms that Greensboro has lost jobs in the private sector since 2007. And yet, not a single seat holder was eliminated in the primaries. As a matter of fact, they were mostly rewarded with new terms. When challengers did bring up that all was not well, they were ignored, ridiculed for bringing up "social issues" or even branded as "extremists."

The News & Record's approach with write-in candidates was sickeningly hypocritical. While it was all too happy to highlight people mounting such campaigns in Rockingham County, it was silent on such candidates in Guilford County.

Also, some friends of friends had a personal run-in with Outling and his wife that could have painted the District 3 councilman in a very different light had the media reported on it (I'm withholding much of the details because a] I don't know all of the story and b] another blogger tried to run with the story and was forced to delete it by the people who are at odds with the Outlings and I don't want to be next). Well, these two found out the hard way that the TV media aren't reliable because they only going to protect the powerful.

Election 2016 One Year Later

In hindsight, it may have been a good thing that Bernie didn't get elected because he probably would have gotten the John Tyler treatment. Whatever was left of the DNC would have delegitimatized Sanders and the People's Party that the Draft Bernie folks are currently pushing for would have been created out of necessity because the Democratic Party would have split in two, resulting in GOP gains in '18 and the Dems conceding the '20 race.

Had Hillary been elected, there would have been nonstop probes on her e-mails and Benghazi--with impeachment likely and conviction possible--leading to President Tim Kaine by the end of next year. Her book tour just further confirmed my suspicions about her: She will never take responsibility for anything she did.

People need to stop treating her as someone who got cheated out of the presidency. She and her crew rigged the primaries and deprived younger voters a voice. Her strategists thought it was a good idea to ignore PA, MI and WI. Chuck Schumer thought that Hillary would get suburban voters after abandoning working class voters.

One year on, the Democratic Party as a whole still refuses to learn anything from being wiped out coast to coast, not including last night's results. The party won governorships in NJ and VA because they were expected to. Meanwhile, the WA State Senate flip ended a fragile right wing majority that was the result of a partnership between conservative business Democrats allying themselves with Republicans.

General Election Endorsements for the Creative Community

Greensboro
Mayor: Write in Billy Jones
At-Large: Michelle Kennedy, Dave Wils  
District 1: Paula Ritter-Lipscomb
District 2: Write in Thessa Pickett
District 3: Craig Martin
District 4: Gary Kenton
District 5: Tammi Thurm

High Point
Mayor: Bruce Davis
At-Large: Mary Lou Andrews Blakeney, write in Megan Longstreet
Ward 1: Jeff Golden
Ward 2: Chris Williams
Ward 3: Monica Peters
Ward 4: Jim Bronnert or Wesley Hudson
Ward 5: Victor Jones

Re-running the Greensboro Primaries

Given the shock of Greensboro voters heavily supporting the status quo amid a wave of numerous candidates filing to run against the incumbents, I decided to take a look at how the 30 (the five candidates who dropped out of their races after the filing deadline closed and the three mayoral candidates are excluded) candidates running for City Council would have fared under the HB 263 districts vs the actual districts.

Criteria:

·         The nullified map vs the current setup

·         The candidates’ raw numbers per precinct are displayed except where indicated

·         Curbside, mail, and provisional votes are excluded

·         Three precincts that would have contained two districts are included in a candidate’s count. The three in question are FR5B (Districts 5 & 7), JAM3 (Districts 5 & 6) and JEF (Districts 1 & 2)

·         The setup is based on voters only selecting councilmembers in their own districts as opposed to voting on all eight councilmembers citywide

·         The October primary-November general setup is preserved

·         * denotes incumbent

District 1

Hightower* 1,344

Hayes 229

Outling* 206

Outling would be at a serious disadvantage without many of his wealthy clients to help him. However, Hayes would not stand much of a chance in the general election thanks to East Greensboro’s power brokers.

BALANCE OF POWER: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

District 2

Johnson* 1,261

Wells 671

Kee 242

Allen 238

Either Johnson or Wells would have stepped down and the remaining candidate would have garnered the other’s votes, making the numbers duplicative. With Brinson’s 12 votes in JEF1 being factored in, Allen would advance to the general election over Kee by an eight-vote margin.

Revised District 2

Johnson or Wells* 1,261

Allen 250

Kee 242

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD. Not even a spirited campaign by Allen would have been able to withstand the big money influence of the city’s political clans and the same thing  goes for the power of old guard black leaders fighting the younger generation.

District 3

Barber* 1,147

Hoffmann* 548

Marsh 100

Hoffmann, like Outling, would have also lost the vast majority of her precincts, putting her at a distinct disadvantage in the general election.

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

District 4

Wils 157

Ritter-Lipscomb 138

Brinson 104

Martin 66

King 47

Since Brinson and Martin both have ties to Black Lives Matter Greensboro and District 4 would have been a minority-majority district, Martin’s votes are added to Brinson’s total, which would allow Brinson to coast in the second round.

Revised District 4

Brinson 170

Wils 157

Ritter-Lipscomb 138

King 47

BOP: DEMOCRACY GREENSBORO GAIN

District 5

Wilkins* 593

Jackson 375

Ingram 217

Nelson 104

Hill 69

It’s unlikely that Jackson or Ingram would run against Wilkins unless there was a real sharp push from the hard right. Jackson entered the at-large race saying that he was “in the mold of Wilkins.” Meanwhile, Ingram had the support of the General Assembly’s Guilford delegation members who backed the HB263 maps, and Wilkins was the only member on City Council who backed the changes, so he would have been rewarded with a safe district.

Revised District 5

Wilkins* 1,185

Nelson 104

Hill 69

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

District 6

Bellamy-Small 277

Kennedy 225

Bakie 76

Perry-Garnette 59

Lucas 23

The most vocal challenger (Kennedy) of the ’17 election would have stood no chance against the former councilwoman (TDBS) in a one on one showdown since District 6 would have also demographically favored electing a black official.

BOP: ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT BLACK COMMUNITY GAIN

District 7

Thurm 255

Bennett-Bradshaw 115

Leone 40

Lacking a second conservative challenger, this race would have been more of a jump straight to the general election since the two ladies are ideologically compatible. Add these two numbers and the margin is even wider in favor of Thurm.

BOP: DEMOCRACY GREENSBORO GAIN

District 8

Abuzuaiter* 1,222

Kenton 288

This is more FYI because the general election numbers would be higher.

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

I thought about which setup would have been better for any group on either the left or the right to break the elites’ stranglehold.

Certainly, the old 0-6-1 setup where everyone was elected at-large served the elites the best. The current 5-3-1 setup is not serving the people well either. Eventually, an 8-0-1 setup would have given the people of Greensboro a chance.

THE ULTIMATE BOP:  6 ESTABLISHMENT SEATS, 3 ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT SEATS. District 1 and 2 are seats that could flip once the older leaders are out of the picture. District 5 could tilt even more to the right if enough people get fed up with Wilkins. Add a change in the mayor’s seat and we are suddenly talking about 7-2 supermajority that could destroy the elites’ will.

High Point Mayor General Election

Bruce Davis vs Jay Wagner vs Damorius Fuller Ali (write-in)

This election really changed on a whim, didn't it? It looked like Jim Davis would be taking on Wagner, but the voters didn't want him after all. Now, it's a showdown of two lines of thinking: Build the stadium now/go it alone without the county commissioners vs build it smart/cooperate with the commissioners so they can get on board.

Bruce Davis is clearly in the latter camp as a former county commissioner, and it's the right call. If the former camp attempt to rush the stadium through, the whole project risks being scuttled amid a  conservative wave in 2019.

Wagner first took a crack at revitalization in late 2009 when he was a part of the Planning Commission's unsuccessful efforts to create a Market District, which would have set aside parts of downtown as places for entertainment, but some showrooms were upset to the point of threatening to pull out of the Furniture Market. Instead, Wagner had to settle for rezoning a two-mile stretch of North Main Street as Uptowne.

The third candidate listed, Fuller Ali, is motivated by the city's rash of homicides and his main focus before the write-in campaign was to incorporate a nonprofit to stem the violence. Had he been persuaded before the filing deadline, Fuller Ali would have likely been in the precarious position of splitting the black vote and/or been the victim of strategic voting pattern by black leaders wanting to avoid a Jim Davis-Wagner second round matchup. Regardless, Fuller Ali has a bright future if he should get his organization up and running.

High Point City Council At-Large General Election

Cynthia Davis vs Mary Lou Andrews Andrews Blakeney vs Britt Moore vs Don Scarborough

The two candidates I voted for finished fifth and last respectively in the primary. As a result, I have a very difficult decision ahead.

Out of the candidates who advanced, only Blakeney is worth the endorsement and the vote.

I have never really been a fan of Cynthia Davis or her ideology. Her clear stance on the stadium has turned her from being the most popular candidate in 2014 to being on the ropes to keep her seat.

As for Moore, his stance on revitalization during his second term was inconsistent to say the least. He is a supporter of a downtown stadium, which landed him the support of a pro-business PAC. Even though he is one of only two registered independents (Monica Peters in Ward 3 is the other), his stances don't impress me much and I have never voted for him and won't this time either.

The fourth person, Scarborough, is all in for the downtown project. However, I can't support him because High Point University (his former employer) carries its own baggage. Alienating residents by cutting off a part of Montlieu Avenue to them because the administration wanted a medical school at all costs but it couldn't successfully persuade Sears and Dillard's to leave Oak Hollow Mall loses points with me. Secondly, the naming of any street after Martin Luther King, Jr. became an incredibly unnecessary controversy in early 2015. Kivett Drive should have been left alone while South College Drive should have been given the MLK Drive designation, and North College should have been named University Parkway. Instead, the school wanted the entire College Drive corridor named University Parkway. Naturally, the City Council did HPU's bidding and wiped off the Kivett Drive designation west of Business 85.

I have also decided that writing in Megan Longstreet as a protest vote would be a better option than supporting any of the previous three candidates.

High Point Ward Elections

NOTE: Jason Ewing is running unopposed in Ward 6

Ward 1

Jeffrey Golden vs Willie Davis

Even though I had issues with Golden during his first term when he consistently sided with the anti-revitalization forces, he has made up for it.

The fact that Willie Davis is running against Golden for the third consecutive cycle means that this should be the least competitive contest. Also, he no-showed the candidate forum earlier this month, depriving some sectors of the population the chance to hear his platform.

Ward 2

Chris Williams vs David Bagley

Williams is running for a second term and was the only candidate who listed crime as his #1 priority during the October 3 forum. In a lot of ways, he's right. The year started off with a rash of homicides, but the issue has been put on the backburner due to the Catalyst Project taking up all of the air. Murders in the city have returned to a rate that was last seen in 1998--horrible. It's time to address the blight in the eastern part of the city that eventually leads to homicides and the heroin epidemic getting out of hand.

I admire Bagley's enthusiasm but he should consider a run for a school board seat instead of a city council seat.

Ward 3

Megan Longstreet vs Monica Peters

Either woman would be an asset to the creative community.

Longstreet's top priority is tackling the blight in the ward, namely opioid abuse and poverty as southwest High Point is one of the poorest in town.

Even though the outgoing seat holder Alyce Hill has endorsed her, Peters first showed her chops working alongside Ryan Saunders in planning Dinner With A Side of Culture event at the Pit in 2014. After the latter left for Greensboro later that year, Mrs. Peters has had to pick up the slack as City Council slowly realized that revitalizing the center city was a necessity. She also organized other events like the EbFest Music Festival and launched We "Heart" High Point. As far as I'm concerned, Monica Peters is the real deal for creatives--and the best out of all the candidates in both cities.

Ward 4

Jim Bronnert vs Wesley Hudson

Just as I thought I had it all figured out, it turned out that Hudson's lead was the result of the Jay Wagner effect. This seemed to be Bronnert's to lose given Hudson was the outsider who as recently moved from Winston-Salem and the seat was open due to Wagner's mayoral run. Given what happened, this is a difficult one for me so I have decided to endorse both candidates.

Ward 5

Victor Jones vs Chris Whitley

Jones bucked the trend: He moved from Raleigh to High Point instead of the other way around. He would be a breath of fresh air over the longtime politician Whitley, who was on and off City Council between 1992 and 2012.