Will the 2020s be the decade that the two party system finally ends?

A 2018 Black Agenda Report article first highlighted a possible future of the duopoly giving way to a multiparty system.

If the duopoly were to collapse, and the various cohorts of the U.S. political spectrum were reorganized along ideological lines, the two biggest parties would be the Trumpist White Man’s party and a social democratic party with a platform to the left of 2016 Bernie Sanders, with the (rightwing) Democrats and establishment Republicans coming together in an avowedly “centrist” party, the smallest of the three. Space would also be created for more radical and libertarian politics.

Breaking Down How the Split Could Happen

Socialist Alternative gave some key analyses into something that seems to currently be impossible on paper but could end up being prescient due to this country's instability. 

First, it looked at how the far right may end up rendering the Republicans obsolete:

The creation of a new far-right party would mean a split in the Republican Party. This may not be immediately on the cards, but a period of sharp internal conflict has begun. The emergence of a far-right party with a mass base would both reflect the deepening of the political crisis of American capitalism and also point to further turmoil and instability.

Given last week’s events, the collapse of that party is now in play much sooner than anticipated. The question is just how bad the rift is going to be—in other words, does the GOP split into two or three factions? The alt-right and the religious fanatics are likely to be part of a new nationalist party. Meanwhile, the hard rightists who aren’t enamored with libertarianism or right-wing populism may be on the outside looking in, they could join the other two camps, or they could end up defecting to the Constitution Party. As far as the remnants of the Republican establishment, see below.

Next, it focused on the crisis that is facing the Democrats:

While it is certainly possible that progressives can win more races as Democrats, the impossibility of transforming this corporate owned party into a tool of working people to achieve meaningful change is increasingly exposed to millions.

This whole “move Biden left” thing is going to end badly for progressives. The Never Trumpers responsible for the Lincoln Project have already started switching to the Democratic Party so #DemEnter for progressives is already a bust after Bernie’s two failed presidential runs. The Dems have had the military industrial complex in an integral role ever since the 2016 presidential election given that the latter deemed Trump as a liability on foreign policy.

As some independent media analysts have pointed out, the Democrats would actually be considered to be a right-wing party in any other developed nation while the Republicans would be considered to be neo-fascists on par with Europe's far right parties. If more establishment conservatives like John Kasich and Meg Whitman decide to switch parties, the rightward tilt of the Democrats will be even more evident.

Some more things that stood out:

One very important recent development is the wave of strikes and threatened strikes by nurses and other healthcare workers in a number of states in the past weeks. These center on unsafe working conditions made far worse under the pandemic. Despite enormous exhaustion, these workers are fighting back, pointing to what can be unleashed once the pandemic is tackled.

Given the May Day protests and the March for Black Lives after George Floyd's death, there are multiple groups who have next to no one who will stand up for them. 

There are two critical and intertwined questions: the rebuilding of a fighting labor movement and building an independent political force to represent the interests of the multiracial, multigender working class. Objectively we have the most favorable situation for the formation of a party on the left independent of corporate interests since the 1970s because of the massive disillusionment in neoliberal capitalism and capitalist institutions generally. The ruling class does not have a coherent narrative for how to take society forward although there are certainly forces pointing to how to take it backward.

The Party for Socialism and Liberation is a small party that could be a vehicle for radical change in the future. After a bitter convention, ballot purges brought on by Democrats nationwide, and a very poor showing by Howie Hawkins during his presidential bid, the Green Party is in serious trouble.

The apparent solution is Movement for a People's Party. The party was founded by a former Bernie strategist Nick Brana, it was formed last August, got on the Maine ballot last month, and refuses to take corporate money. Since it is a progressive populist party, it could be a force in safe Democratic areas, and if it plays its cards right, even in areas that strongly went for Trump both times--like the once radical West Virginia.

The question is where the leadership to build a new party will come from? The role of radical educators and healthcare workers who have spearheaded labor struggle in recent years is crucial. So is the potential role of young BLM and climate activists as well as prominent individuals like Nina Turner, former leader of Sanders’ Our Revolution who is on record saying a new party is needed. Turner appears to be planning to run for Congress, a potentially significant development.

If Nina can win her congressional race and then switch to the People’s Party in time for the midterms, that would be a great starting point.

The DSA also has a key role to play. They have grown significantly and helped elect people to Congress, state houses, and city halls. They have formally committed themselves to the idea of helping build a workers party although many prominent members are still wedded to the idea of reforming the Democrats or “using” the Democratic Party’s ballot line while waiting for developments toward a new party without a clear plan.

In a lot of ways, this could make or break the DSA. The leadership is strongly attached to the Democrats but the rank and file is rebelling against that line of thinking.

Currently we see an offensive against socialism from the political establishment, both Republicans and Democrats. Seattle independent socialist councilmember Kshama Sawant is facing a recall effort driven by big business interests including Amazon. These interests know that major struggles are coming and they want to behead our movement before it becomes stronger.

Just like with ballot access in various states, the corporatists want to squash a movement before it takes off.

Corporate America will do whatever is necessary to protect their system no matter how destructive it is to the interests of the overwhelming majority. If necessary, they will also give support to a far-right party despite the current pretense of many corporations to care about racial oppression and social justice generally.

I could definitely see the corporate elite propping up a neo-fascist party if the People's Party is successful while both the Democrats and Republicans collapse.

The Possible Political Landscape by 2030

• Movement For a People's Party. Progressive populist, social democratic, lots of former Bernie supporters
• American Nationalists. Former Trump supporters, alt-right, religious conservatives, neo-fascist, America First platform
• Moderate Party. The remnants of the Democratic and Republican Parties. More right wing despite its name. Continues advocating neoliberal austerity domestically and neoconservative foreign policy 
• Libertarian Party
• A coalition of of the left. An amalgamation of various socialist parties that push a united agenda. The PSL would likely be the strongest alongside some former Greens  

The Constitution Party is the wild card here. If the nationalists show signs of populism, then the CP may stick around since it already opposes fiscal liberalism. If the nationalists espouse any type of austerity, then the CP is likely toast.

The biggest hurdle for any of these parties governing in a new paradigm is the archaic first past the post system. Whether America switches to a majority voting system, proportional representation, a semi-proportional one, or a final five voting system, a more representative form of government is a must.