Re-running the Greensboro Primaries

Given the shock of Greensboro voters heavily supporting the status quo amid a wave of numerous candidates filing to run against the incumbents, I decided to take a look at how the 30 (the five candidates who dropped out of their races after the filing deadline closed and the three mayoral candidates are excluded) candidates running for City Council would have fared under the HB 263 districts vs the actual districts.

Criteria:

·         The nullified map vs the current setup

·         The candidates’ raw numbers per precinct are displayed except where indicated

·         Curbside, mail, and provisional votes are excluded

·         Three precincts that would have contained two districts are included in a candidate’s count. The three in question are FR5B (Districts 5 & 7), JAM3 (Districts 5 & 6) and JEF (Districts 1 & 2)

·         The setup is based on voters only selecting councilmembers in their own districts as opposed to voting on all eight councilmembers citywide

·         The October primary-November general setup is preserved

·         * denotes incumbent

District 1

Hightower* 1,344

Hayes 229

Outling* 206

Outling would be at a serious disadvantage without many of his wealthy clients to help him. However, Hayes would not stand much of a chance in the general election thanks to East Greensboro’s power brokers.

BALANCE OF POWER: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

District 2

Johnson* 1,261

Wells 671

Kee 242

Allen 238

Either Johnson or Wells would have stepped down and the remaining candidate would have garnered the other’s votes, making the numbers duplicative. With Brinson’s 12 votes in JEF1 being factored in, Allen would advance to the general election over Kee by an eight-vote margin.

Revised District 2

Johnson or Wells* 1,261

Allen 250

Kee 242

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD. Not even a spirited campaign by Allen would have been able to withstand the big money influence of the city’s political clans and the same thing  goes for the power of old guard black leaders fighting the younger generation.

District 3

Barber* 1,147

Hoffmann* 548

Marsh 100

Hoffmann, like Outling, would have also lost the vast majority of her precincts, putting her at a distinct disadvantage in the general election.

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

District 4

Wils 157

Ritter-Lipscomb 138

Brinson 104

Martin 66

King 47

Since Brinson and Martin both have ties to Black Lives Matter Greensboro and District 4 would have been a minority-majority district, Martin’s votes are added to Brinson’s total, which would allow Brinson to coast in the second round.

Revised District 4

Brinson 170

Wils 157

Ritter-Lipscomb 138

King 47

BOP: DEMOCRACY GREENSBORO GAIN

District 5

Wilkins* 593

Jackson 375

Ingram 217

Nelson 104

Hill 69

It’s unlikely that Jackson or Ingram would run against Wilkins unless there was a real sharp push from the hard right. Jackson entered the at-large race saying that he was “in the mold of Wilkins.” Meanwhile, Ingram had the support of the General Assembly’s Guilford delegation members who backed the HB263 maps, and Wilkins was the only member on City Council who backed the changes, so he would have been rewarded with a safe district.

Revised District 5

Wilkins* 1,185

Nelson 104

Hill 69

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

District 6

Bellamy-Small 277

Kennedy 225

Bakie 76

Perry-Garnette 59

Lucas 23

The most vocal challenger (Kennedy) of the ’17 election would have stood no chance against the former councilwoman (TDBS) in a one on one showdown since District 6 would have also demographically favored electing a black official.

BOP: ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT BLACK COMMUNITY GAIN

District 7

Thurm 255

Bennett-Bradshaw 115

Leone 40

Lacking a second conservative challenger, this race would have been more of a jump straight to the general election since the two ladies are ideologically compatible. Add these two numbers and the margin is even wider in favor of Thurm.

BOP: DEMOCRACY GREENSBORO GAIN

District 8

Abuzuaiter* 1,222

Kenton 288

This is more FYI because the general election numbers would be higher.

BOP: ESTABLISHMENT HOLD

I thought about which setup would have been better for any group on either the left or the right to break the elites’ stranglehold.

Certainly, the old 0-6-1 setup where everyone was elected at-large served the elites the best. The current 5-3-1 setup is not serving the people well either. Eventually, an 8-0-1 setup would have given the people of Greensboro a chance.

THE ULTIMATE BOP:  6 ESTABLISHMENT SEATS, 3 ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT SEATS. District 1 and 2 are seats that could flip once the older leaders are out of the picture. District 5 could tilt even more to the right if enough people get fed up with Wilkins. Add a change in the mayor’s seat and we are suddenly talking about 7-2 supermajority that could destroy the elites’ will.

High Point Mayor General Election

Bruce Davis vs Jay Wagner vs Damorius Fuller Ali (write-in)

This election really changed on a whim, didn't it? It looked like Jim Davis would be taking on Wagner, but the voters didn't want him after all. Now, it's a showdown of two lines of thinking: Build the stadium now/go it alone without the county commissioners vs build it smart/cooperate with the commissioners so they can get on board.

Bruce Davis is clearly in the latter camp as a former county commissioner, and it's the right call. If the former camp attempt to rush the stadium through, the whole project risks being scuttled amid a  conservative wave in 2019.

Wagner first took a crack at revitalization in late 2009 when he was a part of the Planning Commission's unsuccessful efforts to create a Market District, which would have set aside parts of downtown as places for entertainment, but some showrooms were upset to the point of threatening to pull out of the Furniture Market. Instead, Wagner had to settle for rezoning a two-mile stretch of North Main Street as Uptowne.

The third candidate listed, Fuller Ali, is motivated by the city's rash of homicides and his main focus before the write-in campaign was to incorporate a nonprofit to stem the violence. Had he been persuaded before the filing deadline, Fuller Ali would have likely been in the precarious position of splitting the black vote and/or been the victim of strategic voting pattern by black leaders wanting to avoid a Jim Davis-Wagner second round matchup. Regardless, Fuller Ali has a bright future if he should get his organization up and running.

High Point City Council At-Large General Election

Cynthia Davis vs Mary Lou Andrews Andrews Blakeney vs Britt Moore vs Don Scarborough

The two candidates I voted for finished fifth and last respectively in the primary. As a result, I have a very difficult decision ahead.

Out of the candidates who advanced, only Blakeney is worth the endorsement and the vote.

I have never really been a fan of Cynthia Davis or her ideology. Her clear stance on the stadium has turned her from being the most popular candidate in 2014 to being on the ropes to keep her seat.

As for Moore, his stance on revitalization during his second term was inconsistent to say the least. He is a supporter of a downtown stadium, which landed him the support of a pro-business PAC. Even though he is one of only two registered independents (Monica Peters in Ward 3 is the other), his stances don't impress me much and I have never voted for him and won't this time either.

The fourth person, Scarborough, is all in for the downtown project. However, I can't support him because High Point University (his former employer) carries its own baggage. Alienating residents by cutting off a part of Montlieu Avenue to them because the administration wanted a medical school at all costs but it couldn't successfully persuade Sears and Dillard's to leave Oak Hollow Mall loses points with me. Secondly, the naming of any street after Martin Luther King, Jr. became an incredibly unnecessary controversy in early 2015. Kivett Drive should have been left alone while South College Drive should have been given the MLK Drive designation, and North College should have been named University Parkway. Instead, the school wanted the entire College Drive corridor named University Parkway. Naturally, the City Council did HPU's bidding and wiped off the Kivett Drive designation west of Business 85.

I have also decided that writing in Megan Longstreet as a protest vote would be a better option than supporting any of the previous three candidates.

High Point Ward Elections

NOTE: Jason Ewing is running unopposed in Ward 6

Ward 1

Jeffrey Golden vs Willie Davis

Even though I had issues with Golden during his first term when he consistently sided with the anti-revitalization forces, he has made up for it.

The fact that Willie Davis is running against Golden for the third consecutive cycle means that this should be the least competitive contest. Also, he no-showed the candidate forum earlier this month, depriving some sectors of the population the chance to hear his platform.

Ward 2

Chris Williams vs David Bagley

Williams is running for a second term and was the only candidate who listed crime as his #1 priority during the October 3 forum. In a lot of ways, he's right. The year started off with a rash of homicides, but the issue has been put on the backburner due to the Catalyst Project taking up all of the air. Murders in the city have returned to a rate that was last seen in 1998--horrible. It's time to address the blight in the eastern part of the city that eventually leads to homicides and the heroin epidemic getting out of hand.

I admire Bagley's enthusiasm but he should consider a run for a school board seat instead of a city council seat.

Ward 3

Megan Longstreet vs Monica Peters

Either woman would be an asset to the creative community.

Longstreet's top priority is tackling the blight in the ward, namely opioid abuse and poverty as southwest High Point is one of the poorest in town.

Even though the outgoing seat holder Alyce Hill has endorsed her, Peters first showed her chops working alongside Ryan Saunders in planning Dinner With A Side of Culture event at the Pit in 2014. After the latter left for Greensboro later that year, Mrs. Peters has had to pick up the slack as City Council slowly realized that revitalizing the center city was a necessity. She also organized other events like the EbFest Music Festival and launched We "Heart" High Point. As far as I'm concerned, Monica Peters is the real deal for creatives--and the best out of all the candidates in both cities.

Ward 4

Jim Bronnert vs Wesley Hudson

Just as I thought I had it all figured out, it turned out that Hudson's lead was the result of the Jay Wagner effect. This seemed to be Bronnert's to lose given Hudson was the outsider who as recently moved from Winston-Salem and the seat was open due to Wagner's mayoral run. Given what happened, this is a difficult one for me so I have decided to endorse both candidates.

Ward 5

Victor Jones vs Chris Whitley

Jones bucked the trend: He moved from Raleigh to High Point instead of the other way around. He would be a breath of fresh air over the longtime politician Whitley, who was on and off City Council between 1992 and 2012.

Greensboro Mayor General Election

Nancy Vaughan vs Diane Moffett vs Billy Jones (write-in)

Let's not beat around the bush here, Mrs. Vaughan is going to win a third term as mayor and will do so running away. She's already running away from the Rev. Moffett in the endorsements race. Conservative West Greensboro is not about to help out Black East Greensboro in dethroning the mayor--not especially when its own slate flamed out in the District 1 and at-large contests big time in addition to John Brown's poor showing in the mayoral contest.

That said, it doesn't mean that I'm going to support someone who is partially responsible for Greensboro still being the hungriest city in America. There's still no reason to support Moffett either because of the potential lawsuits headed the pastor's way if she pulls off the upset. If Moffett's victory is invalidated, then Yvonne Johnson (assuming that the chalk holds) will end up serving another term as mayor and yet another seat will have to be filled and it will go to yet another person with establishment connections.

So, I'm recommending that the creative community write in Billy Jones for mayor.

Greensboro City Council At-Large General Election

Yvonne Johnson vs Marikay Abuzuaiter vs Mike Barber vs Michelle Kennedy vs Dave Wils vs T. Dianne Bellamy-Small

The primary results speak for themselves: Only one Tier 1 candidate and one Tier 2 candidate advanced against one Tier 4 candidate and all three Tier 5 candidates.

I'm still wrapping my head around the fact that Bellamy-Small was able to to beat Irving Allen, who would have been a breath of fresh air and an asset to the creative community. Bellamy-Small is practically a District 1 incumbent looking to seek an at-large seat. That is why I ranked her lower than the two conservatives who had backing from or supported local and state candidates who are outright enemies of the creative community.

It's been my contention over the last four years that the Tanger Performing Arts Center will be a detriment to the arts community and I'm standing by that assessment as the number of venues for artists continues to dwindle downtown. Since all three incumbents have contributed to either the PAC saga or to the city's loss of private sector jobs, none of them deserve to be reelected even though the first two seats seem to be safe.

Instead of the contest being a matter of slowing down Nancy Vaughan and the elites, it's now a contest between new ideas and continuing the same old tired ideas that have resulted in a stagnant city. So, as a result, Kennedy and Wils are the only two people I'm recommending.

Greensboro District Elections

District 1

Sharon Hightower vs Paula Ritter-Lipscomb

I'll stick to my original assessment that Ritter-Lipscomb will be a better fit to turn Southeast Greensboro around than the incumbent.

District 2

Goldie Wells vs Jim Kee vs Thessa Pickett (write-in)

Perhaps East Greensboro residents and black leaders across the nation need to look at themselves the next time they wonder why there's such a dearth of young black leaders who are interested in the political process. The older generation clearly does not want to pass the torch. Irving Allen and Syvine Hill were advancing a new line of thinking in the at-large race while C.J. Brinson promised to do the same in District 2. Instead, Allen was sandwiched between the conservatives for an eighth place finish. Hill, who was deemed by a number of people to be the most qualified candidate, finished at the bottom in the 15-person field and will now be deemed to be a perennial candidate (i.e., unelectable) by the experts. As for Brinson, he missed the chance to call a recount by a measly vote, which exceeded the 1 percentage point requirement.

Sensing the potential of a part of the district being "orphaned," Pickett jumped into the race as a write-in candidate. Her previous political experience was running against Jamal Fox in 2015 and being a part of Black Lives Matter's Greensboro chapter.

The reason why the young demographic risks being abandoned is because the two names on the ballot clearly don't appeal to it. Wells reneged on a pledge to not run for the seat after she was appointed to replace Fox. So, yeah, Ms. Wells is part of that problem of older black leaders unwilling to let the younger generation take a crack at leadership.

Meanwhile, Kee is beholden to developer interests who game the system to get taxpayer money for their projects. Also, to make matters worse, Kee decided to become a Republican on the 18th and was flanked by District 5's Tony Wilkins among others. Joining the party that likes to yell "all lives matter" and echoes the Blue Lives Matter platform is going to lose you votes in a predominately black district. It makes me wonder if Mr. Kee has aspirations for higher office next year.

The only sensible thing to do is to write in Thessa Pickett.

District 3

Justin Outling vs Craig Martin

Another short and sweet message: Consider Craig indeed!

District 4

Nancy Hoffmann vs Gary Kenton

The incumbent is the second biggest impediment to the creative community right behind Wilkins. With Wilkins, it's based on his actions. With Hoffmann, it's based largely on her attitude. In general, Hoffmann and her crowd remind me of Southwest Raleigh residents during my time at NC State. Those residents showed their contempt for NCSU students by convincing local lawmakers to pass an ordinance in mid-2000 that effectively curtailed all off campus parties (when most students were away for the summer) and wanted to restrict the number of roommates a person could have (fortunately, the measure was defeated by a unanimous vote by the Raleigh City Council in early 2003 after students and citizens from other parts of the city spoke up). It's also worth noting that Mrs. Hoffmann was also one of the architects of the dreaded noise ordinance in 2012.

Even if his campaign didn't have any substance, Kenton would have been the no-brainer for the creative community. The fact that he does have a detailed idea of what he would do as a councilman makes this endorsement all the better.

District 5

Tony Wilkins vs Tammi Thurm

The biggest shock of the primaries was that Thurm placed ahead of the incumbent. If she repeats the performance, then the creative community will be all the better for it. The big question now is just how the political clans and conservative organizations will react in the waning weeks of the campaign to the candidate who received the highest ranking from Democracy Greensboro.

Analysis and outlook

Greensboro: More of the same

Despite a high number of people running for office, voters in the Gate City decided to stay the course in most of the races (so much for early voting turning into a political earthquake). The exceptions were Tammi Thurm leading Tony Wilkins in District 5 and Mike Barber only leading Michelle Kennedy by 12 votes for the final at-large seat.

Perhaps, the backlash to Democracy Greensboro took on a life of its own after the group held a candidate forum on September 16. Maybe, as another blogger suggested, most of the residents on both sides of the political spectrum have given up hope. If money does make the world go the round, all newcomers but Thurm, Kennedy, and Dave Wils found out the hard way that if you don't have the funds, the media will ignore you--even if you have a clear message or are deemed to be the most qualified.

Eventually, though, the people of Greensboro will have to live with their choices should the elite backed council members continue to make the city unlivable for the have nots.

High Point: Move ahead with the project

The people deemed by the founder of Sunrise Books to be the "High Point Enterprise Naysayers Club" had a very long night on the 10th as their favorite candidate (Cynthia Davis) advanced to the second round in third place after topping the at-large field in 2014 and Catalyst Project skeptic Jim Davis was eliminated from the mayoral race. It's clear that voters weren't in line the conservatives' line of thinking.

That said, it would be very wise that the Catalyst Project is actually handled the right way because if it isn't, I have a sneaking feeling that either Davis or both will lead a hard right backlash in 2019 with a throw the baby out with the bathwater attitude that would ensure that downtown is lost to the furniture industry forever.

Why I'm anti-experience

As you may notice, I steadfastly refuse to support anyone who is currently in office in Greensboro and former seat holders in both cities. The reason is simple. The following people--Nancy Vaughan, Yvonne Johnson, Chris Whitley--have been in and out of office since the '90s and things got worse under the watch of all three as well as various mayors in both cities. For Greensboro, it's been about making downtown more presentable for rich, white elites who show contempt for minorities. Here in High Point, the northern part of the city sprawled throughout the '90s and '00s while downtown became barren outside of the furniture market and the older southern and eastern parts deteriorated. 

I hold Goldie Wells and Dianne Bellamy-Small culpable because they didn't do enough to stop the creeping poverty while they were in office in the second half of the aughts.

The remaining seven members of the Greensboro City Council also bear responsibility for supporting the STPAC white elephant while residents in East Greensboro continue to fall behind.

Clarification regarding Guilford County elections

Apparently, local or state law does not allow for write-ins in the primaries, so several posts have been changed to reflect that situation. The good news as I found out in 2003 when the district representing NC State had a runoff between two candidates who were hostile to the university's interests, I was able to write in "none of the above" to express my disgust, and Greensboro and High Point voters will be able to write in other people for mayor. So, Billy Jones in the former city and Damorius Fuller Ali in the latter city will be available selections next month.

Primary Endorsements for the Creative Community

Greensboro
Mayor: No endorsement 
At-Large: Irving David Allen (Mayor Pro Tem), Syvine Hill, Michelle Kennedy, Dave Wils (to advance), Lindy Perry-Garnette (to advance), Tijuana Hayes (to advance)
District 1: Paula Ritter-Lipscomb
District 2: C.J. Brinson
District 3: Craig Martin
District 4: Gary Kenton
District 5: Tammi Thurm

High Point
Mayor: Bruce Davis
At-Large: Michael Holmes, Sarah Jane Otte, or Mary Lou Andrews Blakeney 
Ward 4: Jim Bronnert
Ward 5: Victor Jones

High Point Municipal Primaries

Mayor

Challengers: Bruce Davis, Jim Davis, Jay Wagner

The city will elect its third new mayor after Becky Smothers was in office for 16 of 20 years on and off from 1992 to 2012.

The contest seems to be between the last two candidates as Jim Davis and Wagner have traded barbs against each other over a range of issues, and the mudslinging did not end at last night's forum either.

At first, I was going to go with Bruce Davis but then, I had reservations as to whether the county commissioner turned CVB head would once again have his eyes set on higher office--after all, he ran unsuccessfully for State Senate twice this decade and for Congress the last two national cycles--once the mess with the General Assembly's drawing of state and congressional lines is finally settled. However, I listened to what he said at the forum and how he laid out everything related to the proposed stadium, and it made more sense than the way the current mayor and various High Point leaders conducted themselves with the county commissioners. As a result, I have switched back from Wagner to Bruce Davis for mayor since Wagner sided with Bill Bencini and Company's rapid fire push to get the stadium built by 2019 which led to the pushback from the county commissioners.

Ward 4

Challengers: Jim Bronnert, Wesley Hudson, Jody Kearns

The three men are running to succeed Wagner. Bronnert lost to Wagner three years ago. Hudson recently ran for office in Winston-Salem before moving to High Point. Kearns's main motivation for running seems to be the fact that he has a grudge against Wagner.

Ward 5

Challengers: Victor Jones, Deric Stubbs, Sr., Chris Whitley

These three are running to replace Jim Davis. Jones was the only one to appear at last evening's forum. I was willing to give Stubbs a chance and still might if he advances but the no-show was not a good look. As for Whitley, I hold him just as accountable for High Point's status as the hungriest city in America as I do former mayor Smothers since both were in and out of City Council throughout the '90s and '00s as the older parts of the city broke down.

At-Large

Incumbent: Cynthia Davis
Challengers: Mary Lou Andrews Blakeney, Daniel Gardner, Michael Holmes, Britt Moore, Sarah Jane Otte, Don Scarbrough

Cynthia Davis is the most conservative of the current council and the only one who voted against the stadium.

Moore wants his seat back after narrowly losing it to Latimer Alexander IV. He joined Wagner in wanting to keep the City Project back in the spring of 2014 but joined what was left of City Council to kill the plan to reduce part of North Main Street from five lanes to two as a part of a street diet right before the election.

Blakeney also wants to return to the council. She won the second seat in a wave election in 2008 only to lose it to Moore in another wave election two years later.

Scarborough was a part of High Point University's rapid growth, which is part gift and part curse. On one hand, the university's growth has acted as a buffer in keeping the older east central part of the city from decaying. On the other hand, the university has helped to perpetuate the balkanization of the city into three distinct fiefdoms--the university area, the newer parts in the extreme northern part of the city and the older parts in the rest of the city. Also, I still bear a grudge over how the school handled the MLK street renaming controversy in early 2015.

While I do agree with Gardner (among others) that the stadium project should have been placed on the ballot as a referendum, most of his ideology doesn't line up with mine.

In the end, I'll go with Holmes and Otte in addition to Blakeney.