Not asking for a friend, by the way

What happens first, the Triad becomes the Southern equivalent of the Rust Belt or rap music goes the way of jazz?

In other words, the former means that an area that already has trouble getting on the same page suffers an overall loss in population by 2025 or 2030 while the latter means rap music goes from being a popular genre to reverting back to a musical novelty that will eventually be reduced to noncommercial stations two generations from now (try finding a good jazz station and you know what I mean).