Can Civil War II be Averted?

It is quite fitting that today marks the 150th anniversary of the Civil War's beginning. The nation is crumbling from within--mounting debts, crumbling infrastructure, political rifts. Despite calls for civility in the aftermath of the attempted assassination on Representative Gabrielle Giffords, the cooling off period is long over. Wedge issues are back in vogue and an ideological war based on the dreaded "blue states-red states" divide seems inevitable--maybe as soon as 2016. I say five years from now because Barack Obama's name will not be on the ballot. By that time, things could be so bad that only a legitimate third party or independent campaign could prevent the United States from descending into total chaos.

Otherwise, this is the scenario that could lead to a Second Civil War: Yet another close presidential election with possibly a split Congress. The race for the White House could be a repeat of 2000, except this time the election is decided in Congress instead of the Supreme Court. The winning candidate is assassinated in 2017 by a wingnut who was more ideological than the losing candidate. Rather than condemning the killing, supporters of the second-place finisher applaud the gunman on the ground that the winner cheated. Soon, riots erupt nationwide and nothing gets done in Washington. Eventually, dueling governments each claiming to be the "legitimate American government" declare war on each other.