This is based on what I posted on the Fourth Turning Forums last fall. I am taking this public because the rotating model may be the only way that the next political realignment will involve a party outside of the current two in a position of power.
Second, it looks like the mainstreaming of the spoiler effect where the major parties can now use minor parties that are the least compatible with their viewpoints to damage their major opponents--Rick Santorum's failed attempt to recruit a Green candidate to take votes away from Bob Casey, Jr. when he ran for reelection for his Senate seat four years ago and Oregon's attorney general leaving an Ann Coulter lookalike on the ballot running on the Constitution ticket in the same year. The incumbent governor didn't need the help in the end since his margin of victory over his GOP opponent was more than what the kook got (8.1 points vs 3.6).
Third, there is no way that we are ever going to experience any kind of change to the current first past the post system because the public for the most part would rather watch horrible reality TV shows and be beholden to whatever ideology they hold dear. Ergo, complaints about the lesser of two evils will continue without any real attempt to do anything to fixed the flawed voting system that offers us two objectionable choices.
A Different Way
As it looks right now, public confidence in both parties is at an all-time low. However, we need to have a legitimate alternative to the Democrats and Republicans. The current batch of alternatives doesn't shake up. The Greens and the Constitution parties are extreme extensions of the major parties and cancel each other out. The Libertarians, while known for causing Republicans headaches, can also be a spoiler against Democrats. Another thing is that the last 20-25 years were very favorable for Libertarians and the national party spent most of that time espousing their most unrealistic ideas of their platform like abolishing all taxes. The next 20-25 years will not be favorable to the LP so different ideas are needed.
A new populist party is what's needed for the upcoming era. Bailouts and other favors for big corporations have angered much of the public for the last two years. Both parties are beholden to corporations and special interest groups interested in upholding the status quo in D.C. If the Tea Party ever got rid of its corporatist elements and joined left-leaning populists and other like-minded independents, the Dems and the GOP could be in for a rude awakening.
Looking Ahead
As it looks right now, the Republicans are poised to take over the House. The conventional wisdom is that with one chamber against President Obama's agenda, gridlock will be the order of the day. That may be so, but unlike 1995-96, I don't think that Obama will deal with a GOP majority in either house in the event that he's reelected because this time is different in the sense that the public wants quick action on the ailing economy. If there is another government shutdown and/or the economy does not pick quickly, the voters will be left with only two choices in 2012--either reelect Obama and restore Democrats to the House, or replace Obama and give Republicans the Senate. The main point being is that the public is less tolerant of gridlock and will want a party to turn things around. That's what's at stake next Tuesday.
For all of that said, the winner in 2012 may end up with a Pyrrhic victory because if things get worse by 2014, a populist uprising will be inevitable. If things get really bad again, I expect for people to transfer their rage into recruiting candidates or run for office themselves as true populists. The main reason will be the lack of progress from the two parties. This independent coalition will surprise every pundit by sweeping into power. In 2016, the New Populists will be all but assured of the presidency.
In 4-5 years, the opposition party will remain as the #2 party for a while, but the president's party will be relegated to status as a glorified regional party because the split will be so nasty that it'll take decades to fix.
A Couple of Scenarios
1) Obama reelection. In 2014, the Democrats lose House seats to the Greens in some very strong liberal bastions--think university towns. The cause is continuing unease with the president's approach to corporations. As a result, the disenchanted left will deal with a faction that wants to rein in corporate excess. The Democrats will then be limited to the coasts for three decades as the Progressive Caucus and the DLC struggle for the party during its time out of power.
2) Palin or Romney wins in 2012 with a Republican takeover of the Senate. As it did in 2005, the new president and Congress overreach in the two years by insisting on an anti-government agenda that proves to be out of touch with what's needed to fix the country. An example of this would be another disaster on the scale of the I-35W bridge collapse in the face of the White House and Congress refusing to fund infrastructure because they feel that government has no role. The 2014 end result is the GOP losing House seats to Libertarians and/or the Constitution Party and confined to the South and the Rockies for a couple of decades. The party will have a bitter battle among the small government types, Wall Street Republicans, and religious conservatives with one or two of these groups leaving. What's left of the Tea Party (the Astroturfers) will go away.
Future Cycles
3a) New Populists vs Republicans 2015-2040s or
3b) New Populists vs Democrats 2015-2030s
4a) Same as 3a
4b) New Populists vs Republicans 2030s
5) 2040s-2060s alignment same as today
6) Libertarians (by this time the party will have expelled its extremist and anarchist elements and will be marketable to the public) vs the 2012 winner 2060s-2090s
7) New Populists vs Libertarians 2090s-2110s
